Hensher David A, Balbontin Camila, Beck Matthew J, Wei Edward
Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), The University of Sydney Business School, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2022 Jan;155:179-201. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2021.11.011. Epub 2021 Nov 23.
The need to recognise and account for the influence of working from home on commuting activity has never been so real as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only does this change the performance of the transport network, it also means that the way in which transport modellers and planners use models estimated on a typical weekday of travel and expand it up to the week and the year must be questioned and appropriately revised to adjust for the quantum of working from home. Although teleworking is not a new phenomenon, what is new is the ferocity by which it has been imposed on individuals throughout the world, and the expectation that working from home is no longer a temporary phenomenon but one that is likely to continue to some non-marginal extent given its acceptance and revealed preferences from both many employees and employ where working from home makes good sense. This paper formalises the relationship between working from home and commuting by day of the week and time of day for two large metropolitan areas in Australia, Brisbane and Sydney, using a mixed logit choice model, identifying the influences on such choices together with a mapping model between the probability of working from home and socioeconomic and other contextual influences that are commonly used in strategic transport models to predict demand for various modes by location. The findings, based on Wave 3 (approximately 6 months from the initial outbreak of the pandemic) of an ongoing data collection exercise, provide the first formal evidence for Australia in enabling transport planners to adjust their predicted modal shares and overall modal travel activity for the presence of working from home.
由于新冠疫情，认识到并考虑在家工作对通勤活动的影响变得前所未有的迫切。这不仅改变了交通网络的运行情况，还意味着交通模型构建者和规划者使用在典型工作日出行估计的模型，并将其扩展到一周和一年的方式必须受到质疑，并进行适当修订，以适应在家工作的数量。虽然远程工作不是一个新现象，但新的是它在全球范围内强加给个人的激烈程度，以及人们认为在家工作不再是一种临时现象，而是鉴于许多员工和雇主的接受程度以及显示出的偏好，在有充分意义的情况下可能会在一定程度上持续存在的预期。本文使用混合逻辑选择模型，将澳大利亚两个大城市地区布里斯班和悉尼的在家工作与按星期几和一天中的时间划分的通勤之间的关系形式化，确定对这些选择的影响，以及在家工作概率与社会经济和其他背景影响之间的映射模型，这些影响通常用于战略交通模型中按地点预测各种模式的需求。基于正在进行的数据收集活动的第3波（距疫情最初爆发约6个月）得出的结果，为澳大利亚提供了首个正式证据，使交通规划者能够针对在家工作的情况调整其预测的模式份额和总体模式出行活动。
