Vallejo-Borda Jose Agustin, Giesen Ricardo, Basnak Paul, Reyes José P, Mella Lira Beatriz, Beck Matthew J, Hensher David A, Ortúzar Juan de Dios
BRT+ Centre of Excellence, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago, Chile.
Department of Transport and Logistics Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago, Chile.
Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2022 Oct;164:186-205. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.08.010. Epub 2022 Aug 12.
During the year 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic affected mobility around the world, significantly reducing the number of trips by public transport. In this paper, we study its impact in five South American capitals (i.e., Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Lima, Quito and Santiago). A decline in public transport patronage could be very bad news for these cities in the long term, particularly if users change to less sustainable modes, such as cars or motorbikes. Notwithstanding, it could be even beneficial if users selected more sustainable modes, such as active transport (e.g., bicycles and walking). To better understand this phenomenon in the short term, we conducted surveys in these five cities looking for the main explanation for changes from public transport to active and private modes in terms of user perceptions, activity patterns and sociodemographic information. To forecast people's mode shifts in each city, we integrated both objective and subjective information collected in this study using a SEM-MIMIC model. We found five latent variables (i.e., , , and two COVID-19 related attributes i.e. and ), two trip attributes (i.e., and ), and six socio-demographic attributes i.e., and ) influencing the shift from public transport to other modes. Furthermore, both the number of cases and the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 increased the probability of moving from public transport to other modes but, in general, we found a smaller probability of moving to active modes than to private modes. The paper proposes a novel way for understanding geographical and contextual similarities in the pandemic scenario for these metropolises from a transportation perspective.
2020年期间，新冠疫情影响了全球的出行，大幅减少了公共交通的出行次数。在本文中，我们研究了其对五个南美首都（即波哥大、布宜诺斯艾利斯、利马、基多和圣地亚哥）的影响。从长远来看，公共交通客流量的下降对这些城市可能是个非常坏的消息，尤其是如果用户转而选择可持续性较低的出行方式，如汽车或摩托车。尽管如此，如果用户选择更可持续的出行方式，如有氧出行（如骑自行车和步行），情况甚至可能是有益的。为了在短期内更好地理解这一现象，我们在这五个城市进行了调查，从用户认知、出行模式和社会人口信息方面寻找从公共交通转向有氧出行和私人出行方式变化的主要原因。为了预测每个城市人们的出行方式转变，我们使用结构方程模型-多指标多原因模型（SEM-MIMIC）整合了本研究中收集的客观和主观信息。我们发现了五个潜在变量（即 、 、 、 以及两个与新冠疫情相关的属性，即 和 ）、两个出行属性（即 和 ）以及六个社会人口属性（即 、 、 、 、 和 ）影响着从公共交通向其他出行方式的转变。此外，新冠疫情导致的病例数和死亡数都增加了从公共交通转向其他出行方式的可能性，但总体而言，我们发现转向有氧出行方式的可能性小于转向私人出行方式的可能性。本文从交通角度提出了一种新颖的方法，用于理解这些大都市在疫情情景下的地理和背景相似性。
