New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6012, New Zealand.
Climate Analytics, 10969, Berlin, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2021 Dec 8;12(1):7140. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2.
High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the 'Reasons for Concern' framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5-2 °C and very high risks between 2-3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.
对气候变化影响的高级别评估将多种危害综合到一个通用框架中。这需要纳入多个不确定性维度。在这里，我们提出了一种在“关注理由”框架内透明评估这些不确定性的方法，以极端高温为例。我们定量区分了多个不确定性维度，包括未来的脆弱性和暴露于不断变化的气候危害。在升温 1.5-2°C 后，极端高温的风险很高，在升温 2-3.5°C 后，风险非常高。如果全球评估基于国家风险阈值，那么风险会更早出现，这凸显了严格减排以限制未来极端高温风险的必要性。
