Department of Psychology.
Psychol Methods. 2022 Jun;27(3):451-465. doi: 10.1037/met0000415. Epub 2021 Dec 9.
Tendeiro and Kiers (2019) provide a detailed and scholarly critique of Null Hypothesis Bayesian Testing (NHBT) and its central component-the Bayes factor-that allows researchers to update knowledge and quantify statistical evidence. Tendeiro and Kiers conclude that NHBT constitutes an improvement over frequentist -values, but primarily elaborate on a list of 11 "issues" of NHBT. We believe that several issues identified by Tendeiro and Kiers are of central importance for elucidating the complementary roles of hypothesis testing versus parameter estimation and for appreciating the virtue of statistical thinking over conducting statistical rituals. But although we agree with many of their thoughtful recommendations, we believe that Tendeiro and Kiers are overly pessimistic, and that several of their "issues" with NHBT may in fact be conceived as pronounced advantages. We illustrate our arguments with simple, concrete examples and end with a critical discussion of one of the recommendations by Tendeiro and Kiers, which is that "estimation of the full posterior distribution offers a more complete picture" than a Bayes factor hypothesis test. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).
坦迪罗和基尔斯(2019)对零假设贝叶斯检验(NHBT)及其核心组成部分——贝叶斯因子——进行了详细而深入的批判,该检验使研究人员能够更新知识并量化统计证据。坦迪罗和基尔斯的结论是,NHBT 比频率主义——值有了改进,但主要是详细阐述了 NHBT 的 11 个“问题”列表。我们认为,坦迪罗和基尔斯提出的几个问题对于阐明假设检验与参数估计的互补作用以及理解统计思维优于进行统计仪式具有重要意义。但是,尽管我们同意他们的许多深思熟虑的建议,但我们认为坦迪罗和基尔斯过于悲观,并且 NHBT 的几个“问题”实际上可以被认为是明显的优势。我们用简单、具体的例子来说明我们的观点,并以对坦迪罗和基尔斯的一个建议的批判性讨论结束,即“对完整后验分布的估计比贝叶斯因子假设检验提供了更完整的图景”。(PsycInfo 数据库记录(c)2022 APA,保留所有权利)。