Dixon Janine M, Adams Philip D, Sheard Nicholas
Aust J Agric Resour Econ. 2021 Oct;65(4):776-801. doi: 10.1111/1467-8489.12459. Epub 2021 Nov 1.
We simulate the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Australian economy using VURM, a detailed computable general equilibrium model for Australia. We identify five sources of economic perturbations: changes to productivity due to changing work practices, changes in household demand imposed by voluntary and mandated social distancing behaviour, changes in international trade due to a weakened world economy and severe curtailment of international travel, reduced population growth due to lower net migration and large debt-financed fiscal stimulus. Variants of these shocks and associated recovery paths are simulated in VURM, with three scenarios describing potential recovery arcs. The macroeconomic and industry impacts are reported for each scenario. Ultimately, our focus is on the impact on output and employment in the agriculture and mining sectors, and on their likely recovery prospects. At the peak of economic impacts, output in these sectors declines by about 6 per cent relative to a no-COVID baseline. Compared to the economy-wide average, the decline in agriculture and mining output is small. This can be explained by relatively minor impacts on work practices, relatively low negative impacts on demand for intensive agriculture (helped by fiscal supports for households) and relatively low disruption to export demand.
我们使用VURM（一种针对澳大利亚的详细可计算一般均衡模型）来模拟新冠疫情对澳大利亚经济的影响。我们确定了经济扰动的五个来源：因工作方式变化导致的生产率变化、自愿和强制社交距离行为所带来的家庭需求变化、因世界经济疲软和国际旅行大幅缩减导致的国际贸易变化、因净移民减少导致的人口增长下降以及大规模债务融资的财政刺激。在VURM中模拟了这些冲击的不同变体以及相关的复苏路径，有三种情景描述了潜在的复苏轨迹。针对每种情景报告了宏观经济和行业影响。最终，我们关注的是对农业和矿业部门产出及就业的影响，以及它们可能的复苏前景。在经济影响的高峰期，相对于无新冠疫情的基线，这些部门的产出下降约6%。与全经济范围的平均水平相比，农业和矿业产出的下降幅度较小。这可以通过对工作方式的影响相对较小、对集约化农业需求的负面影响相对较低（家庭财政支持起到了帮助作用）以及对出口需求的干扰相对较低来解释。
