Department of Health Policy and Management, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
Development Learning Lab, Chr. Michelsen Institute, Bergen, Norway.
BMJ Glob Health. 2021 Dec;6(12). doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005481.
The burden of road traffic crashes (RTCs) and road traffic fatalities (RTFs) has been increasing in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Most RTCs and RTFs happen at night. Although few countries, including Zambia, have implemented night travel bans, there is no evidence on the extent to which such policies may reduce crashes and fatalities.
We exploit the quasi-experimental set up afforded by the banning of night travel of public service vehicles in Zambia in 2016 and interrupted time series analysis to assess whether the ban had an impact on both levels and trends in RTCs and RTFs. We use annual administrative data for the period 2006-2020, with 10 pre-intervention and 4 post-intervention data points. In an alternative specification, we restrict the analysis to the period 2012-2020 so that the number of data points are the same pre-interventions and post-interventions. We also carry out robustness checks to rule out other possible explanation of the results including COVID-19.
The night travel ban was associated with a reduction in the level of RTCs by 4131.3 (annual average RTCs before the policy=17 668) and a reduction in the annual trend in RTCs by 2485.5. These effects were significant at below 1%, and they amount to an overall reduction in RTCs by 24%. The policy was also associated with a 57.5% reduction in RTFs. In absolute terms, the trend in RTFs reduced by 477.5 (Annual average RTFs before the policy=1124.7), which is significant at below 1% level. Our results were broadly unchanged in alternative specifications.
We conclude that a night travel ban may be an effective way of reducing the burden of RTCs and RTFs in Zambia and other LMICs. However, complementary policies are needed to achieve more gains.
道路交通事故（RTCs）和道路交通死亡（RTFs）的负担一直在低收入和中等收入国家（LMICs）增加。大多数 RTCs 和 RTFs 发生在夜间。尽管包括赞比亚在内的少数几个国家已经实施了夜间旅行禁令，但没有证据表明这些政策在多大程度上可以减少事故和死亡。
我们利用赞比亚 2016 年禁止公共服务车辆夜间行驶的准实验设置和中断时间序列分析来评估该禁令是否对 RTCs 和 RTFs 的水平和趋势都有影响。我们使用 2006-2020 年期间的年度行政数据，有 10 个干预前和 4 个干预后数据点。在另一种规范中，我们将分析限制在 2012-2020 年期间，以便干预前和干预后的数据点数量相同。我们还进行了稳健性检查，以排除其他可能导致结果的解释，包括 COVID-19。
夜间旅行禁令与 RTCs 水平降低 4131.3 有关（政策前每年平均 RTCs=17668），并降低了 RTCs 的年度趋势 2485.5。这些影响在 1%以下显著，总体减少了 24%的 RTCs。该政策还与 RTFs 减少 57.5%有关。从绝对值来看，RTFs 的趋势减少了 477.5（政策前每年平均 RTFs=1124.7），这在 1%的水平上是显著的。我们的结果在替代规范中基本不变。
我们的结论是，夜间旅行禁令可能是减少赞比亚和其他 LMICs 中 RTCs 和 RTFs 负担的有效方法。然而，需要采取补充政策才能取得更多收益。
