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接种疫苗和非药物干预措施对瑞士 SARS-CoV-2 动力学的影响。

Impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Switzerland.

机构信息

Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.

Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.

出版信息

Epidemics. 2022 Mar;38:100535. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100535. Epub 2021 Dec 14.

DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100535
PMID:34923396
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8669952/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

As vaccination coverage against SARS-CoV-2 increases amidst the emergence and spread of more infectious and potentially more deadly viral variants, decisions on timing and extent of relaxing effective, but unsustainable, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) need to be made.

METHODS

An individual-based transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, OpenCOVID, was developed to compare the impact of various vaccination and NPI strategies on the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland. OpenCOVID uses the Oxford Containment Health Index (OCHI) to quantify the stringency of NPIs.

RESULTS

Even if NPIs in place in March 2021 were to be maintained and the vaccine campaigns rollout rapidly scaled-up, a 'third wave' was predicted. However, we find a cautious phased relaxation can substantially reduce population-level morbidity and mortality. We find that a faster vaccination campaign can offset the size of such a wave, allowing more flexibility for NPIs to be relaxed sooner. Model outcomes were most sensitive to the level of infectiousness of variants of concern observed in Switzerland.

CONCLUSION

A rapid vaccination rollout can allow the sooner relaxation of NPIs, however ongoing surveillance of - and swift responses to - emerging viral variants is of utmost importance for epidemic control.

摘要

背景

随着 SARS-CoV-2 疫苗接种率的提高，传染性更强且可能致命性更高的病毒变异株不断出现并传播，需要就何时以及在多大程度上放松有效但不可持续的非药物干预（NPI）做出决策。

方法

我们开发了一个基于个体的 SARS-CoV-2 动力学传播模型 OpenCOVID，以比较各种疫苗接种和 NPI 策略对瑞士 COVID-19 疫情的影响。OpenCOVID 使用牛津遏制健康指数（OCHI）来量化 NPI 的严格程度。

结果

即使 2021 年 3 月实施的 NPI 得以维持且疫苗接种运动迅速扩大规模，仍预测会出现“第三波”疫情。然而，我们发现谨慎的分阶段放松可以显著降低人群发病率和死亡率。我们发现更快的疫苗接种运动可以抵消这种浪潮的规模，从而为更早地放宽 NPI 提供更大的灵活性。模型结果对瑞士观察到的关注变异株的传染性水平最为敏感。

结论

快速疫苗接种运动可以允许更早地放松 NPI，但对新出现的病毒变异株的持续监测和迅速应对对于控制疫情至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/97c08f312790/gr7_lrg.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/beba66b7d050/gr2_lrg.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/1cbb1ec87fd7/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/5004f3146921/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/97c08f312790/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/d40374ce0a45/ga1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/4c1a0e50ff88/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/beba66b7d050/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/3f94534fe738/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/2ef95e280b3c/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/1cbb1ec87fd7/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/5004f3146921/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/99dd/8669952/97c08f312790/gr7_lrg.jpg

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