Fundamentals Department, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
Command and Control Center of Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site, Wenchang, Hainan, China.
PLoS One. 2021 Dec 22;16(12):e0261236. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261236. eCollection 2021.
In the past year, the global epidemic situation is still not optimistic, showing a trend of continuous expansion. With the research and application of vaccines, there is an urgent need to develop some optimal vaccination strategies. How to make a reasonable vaccination strategy to determine the priority of vaccination under the limited vaccine resources to control the epidemic and reduce human casualties? We build a dynamic model with vaccination which is extended the classical SEIR model. By fitting the epidemic data of three countries-China, Brazil, Indonesia, we have evaluated age-specific vaccination strategy for the number of infections and deaths. Furthermore, we have evaluated the impact of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of the basic reproduction number. At last, we also have evaluated the different age structure of the vaccination priority. It shows that giving priority to vaccination of young people can control the number of infections, while giving priority to vaccination of the elderly can greatly reduce the number of deaths in most cases. Furthermore, we have found that young people should be mainly vaccinated to reduce the number of infections. When the emphasis is on reducing the number of deaths, it is important to focus vaccination on the elderly. Simulations suggest that appropriate age-specific vaccination strategies can effectively control the epidemic, both in terms of the number of infections and deaths.
在过去的一年中，全球疫情形势依然不容乐观，呈现持续扩大的趋势。随着疫苗的研究和应用，迫切需要制定一些最佳的接种策略。如何制定合理的接种策略，在有限的疫苗资源下确定接种优先级，以控制疫情并减少人员伤亡？我们构建了一个带有接种的动态模型，该模型扩展了经典的 SEIR 模型。通过拟合中国、巴西和印度尼西亚三个国家的疫情数据，我们评估了针对感染和死亡人数的特定年龄组的疫苗接种策略。此外，我们还评估了特定年龄组疫苗接种策略对基本再生数的影响。结果表明，优先为年轻人接种疫苗可以控制感染人数，而优先为老年人接种疫苗在大多数情况下可以大大减少死亡人数。此外，我们还发现，为了减少感染人数，应主要为年轻人接种疫苗。当重点是减少死亡人数时，重点接种老年人至关重要。模拟结果表明，适当的特定年龄组疫苗接种策略可以有效地控制疫情，无论是在感染人数还是死亡人数方面。
