Department of Internal Medicine, Botucatu Medical School, University of São Paulo State-UNESP, Avenida Professor Mario Rubens Montenegro, Botucatu, São Paulo, 18618-687, Brazil.
Division of Nephrology, Hospital Obrero No. 2 - CNS, Universidad Mayor de San Simon, School of Medicine, Cochabamba, Bolivia.
Sci Rep. 2021 Dec 24;11(1):24439. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-03894-5.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequently associated with COVID-19 and it is considered an indicator of disease severity. This study aimed to develop a prognostic score for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients with AKI (AKI-COV score). This was a cross-sectional multicentre prospective cohort study in the Latin America AKI COVID-19 Registry. A total of 870 COVID-19 patients with AKI defined according to the KDIGO were included between 1 May 2020 and 31 December 2020. We evaluated four categories of predictor variables that were available at the time of the diagnosis of AKI: (1) demographic data; (2) comorbidities and conditions at admission; (3) laboratory exams within 24 h; and (4) characteristics and causes of AKI. We used a machine learning approach to fit models in the training set using tenfold cross-validation and validated the accuracy using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The coefficients of the best model (Elastic Net) were used to build the predictive AKI-COV score. The AKI-COV score had an AUC-ROC of 0.823 (95% CI 0.761-0.885) in the validation cohort. The use of the AKI-COV score may assist healthcare workers in identifying hospitalized COVID-19 patients with AKI that may require more intensive monitoring and can be used for resource allocation.
急性肾损伤 (AKI) 与 COVID-19 频繁相关,被认为是疾病严重程度的指标。本研究旨在开发一种预测 COVID-19 合并 AKI 患者住院死亡率的预后评分(AKI-COV 评分)。这是一项在拉丁美洲 AKI COVID-19 登记处进行的横断面多中心前瞻性队列研究。共纳入 2020 年 5 月 1 日至 2020 年 12 月 31 日期间根据 KDIGO 定义的 870 例 COVID-19 合并 AKI 患者。我们评估了在 AKI 诊断时可用的四类预测变量:(1)人口统计学数据;(2)入院时的合并症和情况;(3)24 小时内的实验室检查;和(4)AKI 的特征和病因。我们使用机器学习方法在训练集中使用十折交叉验证拟合模型,并使用接收者操作特征曲线下的面积 (AUC-ROC) 验证准确性。最佳模型(弹性网络)的系数用于构建预测 AKI-COV 评分。AKI-COV 评分在验证队列中的 AUC-ROC 为 0.823(95%CI 0.761-0.885)。AKI-COV 评分的使用可能有助于医护人员识别需要更密切监测的住院 COVID-19 合并 AKI 患者,并可用于资源分配。