Kumar Das Dhiraj, Khatua Anupam, Kar T K, Jana Soovoojeet
Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpur, Howrah 711103, India.
Department of Mathematics, Ramsaday College, Amta, Howrah 711401, India.
Appl Math Comput. 2021 Sep 1;404:126207. doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2021.126207. Epub 2021 Mar 19.
The ongoing pandemic situation due to COVID-19 originated from the Wuhan city, China affects the world in an unprecedented scale. Unavailability of totally effective vaccination and proper treatment regimen forces to employ a non-pharmaceutical way of disease mitigation. The world is in desperate demand of useful control intervention to combat the deadly virus. This manuscript introduces a new mathematical model that addresses two different diagnosis efforts and isolation of confirmed cases. The basic reproductive number, is inspected, and the model's dynamical characteristics are also studied. We found that with the condition the disease can be eliminated from the system. Further, we fit our proposed model system with cumulative confirmed cases of six Indian states, namely, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Delhi and West Bengal. Sensitivity analysis carried out to scale the impact of different parameters in determining the size of the epidemic threshold of . It reveals that unidentified symptomatic cases result in an underestimation of whereas, diagnosis based on new contact made by confirmed cases can gradually reduce the size of and hence helps to mitigate the ongoing disease. An optimal control problem is framed using a control variable projecting the effectiveness of diagnosis based on traced contacts made by a confirmed COVID patient. It is noticed that optimal contact tracing effort reduces effectively over time.
由新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)引发的持续大流行状况起源于中国武汉市,正以前所未有的规模影响着全世界。由于缺乏完全有效的疫苗接种和适当的治疗方案,不得不采用非药物方式来减轻疾病传播。全世界迫切需要有效的控制干预措施来对抗这种致命病毒。本文介绍了一种新的数学模型,该模型涉及两种不同的诊断措施以及确诊病例的隔离。对基本再生数进行了检验,并研究了该模型的动力学特征。我们发现,在条件 下,疾病可以从系统中消除。此外,我们将所提出的模型系统与印度六个邦(即马哈拉施特拉邦、泰米尔纳德邦、安得拉邦、卡纳塔克邦、德里和西孟加拉邦)的累计确诊病例进行了拟合。进行了敏感性分析,以衡量不同参数在确定疫情阈值大小时的影响。结果表明未识别出的有症状病例会导致对 的低估,而基于确诊病例新接触进行的诊断可以逐渐减小 的大小,从而有助于减轻当前疾病的传播。利用控制变量 构建了一个最优控制问题,该变量反映了基于确诊COVID患者追踪接触进行诊断的有效性。可以注意到,随着时间的推移,最优接触追踪措施能有效地降低 。