Neil Maizlish is an independent epidemiologist based in Berkeley, CA. Linda Rudolph is with the Public Health Institute, Oakland, CA. Chengsheng Jiang is with the School of Public Health, University of Maryland, College Park.
Am J Public Health. 2022 Mar;112(3):426-433. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2021.306600.
To quantify health benefits and carbon emissions of 2 transportation scenarios that contrast optimum levels of physical activity from active travel and minimal air pollution from electric cars. We used data on burden of disease, travel, and vehicle emissions in the US population and a health impact model to assess health benefits and harms of physical activity from transportation-related walking and cycling, fine particulate pollution from car emissions, and road traffic injuries. We compared baseline travel with walking and cycling a median of 150 weekly minutes for physical activity, and with electric cars that minimized carbon pollution and fine particulates. In 2050, the target year for carbon neutrality, the active travel scenario avoided 167 000 deaths and gained 2.5 million disability-adjusted life years, monetized at $1.6 trillion using the value of a statistical life. Carbon emissions were reduced by 24% from baseline. Electric cars avoided 1400 deaths and gained 16 400 disability-adjusted life years, monetized at $13 billion. To achieve carbon neutrality in transportation and maximize health benefits, active travel should have a prominent role along with electric vehicles in national blueprints. (. 2022; 112(3):426-433. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306600).
为了量化两种交通情景的健康效益和碳排放，这两种情景分别对比了最佳水平的体力活动（来自于积极出行）和最小化的汽车尾气污染（来自于电动汽车）。我们使用了美国人口的疾病负担、出行和车辆排放数据，以及一个健康影响模型，来评估与交通相关的步行和骑行的体力活动、汽车尾气排放的细颗粒物污染以及道路交通伤害带来的健康效益和危害。我们将基线出行与每周平均 150 分钟的步行和骑行活动进行了比较，作为体力活动的目标，同时也考虑了最小化碳排放和细颗粒物污染的电动汽车。在 2050 年，即实现碳中和的目标年份，积极出行情景避免了 16.7 万人死亡，并获得了 250 万个伤残调整生命年，用生命统计价值货币化，价值为 1.6 万亿美元。碳排放量比基线减少了 24%。电动汽车避免了 1400 人死亡，并获得了 1.64 万个伤残调整生命年，用货币化价值为 130 亿美元。为了在交通领域实现碳中和并最大化健康效益，积极出行应该与电动汽车一起在国家蓝图中发挥突出作用。（《美国医学会杂志》，2022 年；112（3）：426-433. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306600）。
