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利用支持向量机和深度学习算法预测马来西亚半岛的径流量。

Predicting streamflow in Peninsular Malaysia using support vector machine and deep learning algorithms.

机构信息

Department of Civil Engineering, Lee Kong Chian Faculty of Engineering and Science, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Selangor, Malaysia.

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Technology, and Built Environment, UCSI University, 56000, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2022 Mar 10;12(1):3883. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07693-4.

Abstract

Floods and droughts are environmental phenomena that occur in Peninsular Malaysia due to extreme values of streamflow (SF). Due to this, the study of SF prediction is highly significant for the purpose of municipal and environmental damage mitigation. In the present study, machine learning (ML) models based on the support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM), are tested and developed to predict SF for 11 different rivers throughout Peninsular Malaysia. SF data sets for the rivers were collected from the Malaysian Department of Irrigation and Drainage. The main objective of the present study is to propose a universal model that is most capable of predicting SFs for rivers within Peninsular Malaysia. Based on the findings, the ANN3 model which was developed using the ANN algorithm and input scenario 3 (inputs consisting of previous 3 days SF) is deduced as the best overall ML model for SF prediction as it outperformed all the other models in 4 out of 11 of the tested data sets; and obtained among the highest average RMs with a score of 3.27, hence indicating that the model is very adaptable and reliable in accurately predicting SF based on different data sets and river case studies. Therefore, the ANN3 model is proposed as a universal model for SF prediction within Peninsular Malaysia.

摘要

洪水和干旱是马来西亚半岛由于极端的流量(SF)而发生的环境现象。因此,为了减轻城市和环境破坏,研究 SF 预测具有重要意义。在本研究中,基于支持向量机(SVM)、人工神经网络(ANN)和长短期记忆(LSTM)的机器学习(ML)模型进行了测试和开发,以预测马来西亚半岛 11 条不同河流的 SF。河流的 SF 数据集是从马来西亚灌溉与排水部收集的。本研究的主要目的是提出一个最能预测马来西亚半岛河流 SF 的通用模型。根据研究结果,使用 ANN 算法和输入场景 3(输入由前 3 天的 SF 组成)开发的 ANN3 模型被推断为用于 SF 预测的最佳整体 ML 模型,因为它在 11 个测试数据集的 4 个中优于所有其他模型;并获得了最高的平均 RM 分数之一,得分为 3.27,这表明该模型在基于不同数据集和河流案例研究准确预测 SF 方面非常适应和可靠。因此,ANN3 模型被提议作为马来西亚半岛内 SF 预测的通用模型。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/500a/8913629/4e631600dc75/41598_2022_7693_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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