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高度协调的全国性大规模出行限制措施是中国有效缓解和控制新冠疫情爆发的核心。

Highly coordinated nationwide massive travel restrictions are central to effective mitigation and control of COVID-19 outbreaks in China.

作者信息

Chen Xingru, Fu Feng

机构信息

School of Sciences, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, People's Republic of China.

Department of Mathematics, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA.

出版信息

Proc Math Phys Eng Sci. 2022 Apr;478(2260):20220040. doi: 10.1098/rspa.2022.0040. Epub 2022 Apr 13.

Abstract

COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus 2019, has caused grave woes across the globe since it was first reported in the epicentre of Wuhan, Hubei, China, in December 2019. The spread of COVID-19 in China has been successfully curtailed by massive travel restrictions that rendered more than 900 million people housebound for more than two months since the lockdown of Wuhan, and elsewhere, on 23 January 2020. Here, we assess the impact of China's massive lockdowns and travel restrictions reflected by the changes in mobility patterns across and within provinces, before and during the lockdown period. We calibrate movement flow between provinces with an epidemiological compartment model to quantify the effectiveness of lockdowns and reductions in disease transmission. Our analysis demonstrates that the onset and phase of local community transmission in other provinces depends on the cumulative population outflow received from the epicentre Hubei. Moreover, we show that synchronous lockdowns and consequent reduced mobility lag a certain time to elicit an actual impact on suppressing the spread. Such highly coordinated nationwide lockdowns, applied via a top-down approach along with high levels of compliance from the bottom up, are central to mitigating and controlling outbreaks and averting a massive health crisis.

摘要

2019年新型冠状病毒引发的疾病COVID-19自2019年12月在中国湖北省武汉市疫情中心首次报告以来,已在全球范围内造成严重灾难。自2020年1月23日武汉及其他地区封城以来,中国通过大规模旅行限制措施成功遏制了COVID-19的传播,这些措施使超过9亿人居家两个多月。在此,我们评估了中国大规模封城和旅行限制措施的影响,这些影响通过封城前后各省之间及省内流动模式的变化得以体现。我们使用流行病学隔间模型校准各省之间的流动流量,以量化封城措施的有效性以及疾病传播的减少情况。我们的分析表明,其他省份本地社区传播的开始和阶段取决于从疫情中心湖北省接收的累计人口流出量。此外,我们表明同步封城以及随之而来的流动性降低需要一定时间才能对抑制传播产生实际影响。这种通过自上而下的方式实施且自下而上高度配合的全国性高度协调封城措施,对于减轻和控制疫情以及避免大规模健康危机至关重要。

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