Van Oorschot Kim E, Van Wassenhove Luk N, Jahre Marianne
Department of Accounting and Operations Management BI Norwegian Business School Oslo Norway.
Technology and Operations Management, INSEAD Fontainebleau France.
Prod Oper Manag. 2022 Apr 14. doi: 10.1111/poms.13709.
Testing for COVID-19 is a key intervention that supports tracking and isolation to prevent further infections. However, diagnostic tests are a scarce and finite resource, so abundance in one country can quickly lead to shortages in others, creating a competitive landscape. Countries experience peaks in infections at different times, meaning that the need for diagnostic tests also peaks at different moments. This phase lag implies opportunities for a more collaborative approach, although countries might also worry about the risks of future shortages if they help others by reallocating their excess inventory of diagnostic tests. This article features a simulation model that connects three subsystems: COVID-19 transmission, the diagnostic test supply chain, and public policy interventions aimed at flattening the infection curve. This integrated system approach clarifies that, for public policies, there is a time to be risk-averse and a time for risk-taking, reflecting the different phases of the pandemic (contagion vs. recovery) and the dominant dynamic behavior that occurs in these phases (reinforcing vs. balancing). In the contagion phase, policymakers cannot afford to reject extra diagnostic tests and should take what they can get, in line with a competitive mindset. In the recovery phase, policymakers can afford to give away excess inventory to other countries in need (one-sided collaboration). When a country switches between taking and giving, in a form of two-sided collaboration, it can flatten the curve, not only for itself but also for others.
新冠病毒检测是一项关键干预措施，有助于追踪和隔离，以防止进一步感染。然而，诊断检测是一种稀缺且有限的资源，因此一个国家检测资源丰富可能很快导致其他国家出现短缺，从而形成竞争局面。各国感染高峰出现的时间不同，这意味着对诊断检测的需求也在不同时刻达到峰值。这种相位滞后意味着采取更协作方式存在机会，不过各国可能也担心，如果通过重新分配多余的诊断检测库存来帮助其他国家，未来会面临短缺风险。本文介绍了一个模拟模型，该模型连接了三个子系统：新冠病毒传播、诊断检测供应链以及旨在平缓感染曲线的公共政策干预措施。这种综合系统方法表明，对于公共政策而言，有时应规避风险，有时则应冒险，这反映了疫情的不同阶段（传播阶段与恢复阶段）以及这些阶段出现的主导动态行为（增强型与平衡型）。在传播阶段，政策制定者不能拒绝额外的诊断检测，应秉持竞争心态，能拿到多少就拿多少。在恢复阶段，政策制定者可以将多余库存捐赠给其他有需要的国家（单边协作）。当一个国家以双边协作的形式在接受和捐赠之间转换时，它不仅可以平缓自身的感染曲线，也能帮助其他国家。
