Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia, Recife, PE, Brasil.
Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, Unidade Acadêmica de Geografia, Campina Grande, PB, Brasil.
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2022 Jun 6;55:e0671. doi: 10.1590/0037-8682-0671-2021. eCollection 2022.
This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity.
Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence.
Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle.
ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.
本研究旨在回答两个问题：（1）厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）如何影响气候变率，以及它如何影响累西腓大都市地区（MRR）的登革热传播；（2）MRR 各城市的疫情是否存在关联和同步性。
采用小波分析和交叉相关分析来描述季节性、多年周期以及各序列之间的相对延迟。本研究分为两个不同时期。首先，我们对 2001 年至 2017 年期间的登革热发病率和城市间疫情同步性进行了周期性分析。然后，我们定义了 2001 年至 2016 年的时间段，以分析气候变量的周期性及其与登革热发病率的一致性。
结果显示，存在 3-4 年的系统周期，且近期有 2-3 年的缩短趋势。气候变率，如正异常温度和因海面温度（SST）变化导致的降雨量减少，部分与疾病的不断变化的流行病学有关，因为这种情况为埃及伊蚊的生命周期提供了适宜的环境。
ENSO 可能影响了 MRR 的登革热时间模式，将其主要多年变化（3-4 年）的周期短暂缩短至 2-3 年。此外，当疫情与厄尔尼诺年相吻合时，疫情会在区域内传播并高度同步。
