Bogam Prasad, Joshi Aparna, Nagarkar Sanket, Jain Divyashri, Gupte Nikhil, Shashidhara L S, Monteiro Joy Merwin, Mave Vidya
BJ Government Medical College-Johns Hopkins University Clinical Research Site (CRS), Pune, India.
Johns Hopkins India, Pune, India.
IJID Reg. 2022 Mar;2:74-81. doi: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2021.12.006. Epub 2021 Dec 18.
To assess trends in case incidence and fatality rate between the first and second waves, we analyzed programmatic COVID-19 data from Pune city, an epicenter of COVID-19 cases in India.
The trends of cases incidence, time-to-death and case fatality rate (CFR) were analyzed. Poisson regression models adjusted for age and gender were used to determine the independent effect of pandemic waves on mortality.
Of 465 192 COVID-19 cases, 162 182 (35%) were reported in the first wave and 4146 (2.5%) deaths, and 275 493 (59%) in the second wave and 3184 (1.1%) deaths (<0.01). The overall CFR was 1.16 per 1000 person-days (PD), which declined from 1.80 per 1000 PD during the first wave to 0.77 per 1000 PD in the second. The risk of death was 1.49 times higher during the first wave (adjusted CFR ratio (aCFRR)1.49; 95% CI: 1.37-1.62) and 35% lower in the second wave (aCFRR 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59-0.70).
The burden of COVID-19 cases and deaths was more significant in the second wave; however, the CFR declined as the pandemic progressed. Nevertheless, investigating new therapies and implementing mass vaccination against COVID-19 are urgently needed.
为评估第一波和第二波疫情期间的病例发病率和死亡率趋势，我们分析了来自印度新冠疫情中心浦那市的新冠疫情防控项目数据。
分析病例发病率、死亡时间和病死率（CFR）的趋势。采用经年龄和性别调整的泊松回归模型来确定疫情波次对死亡率的独立影响。
在465192例新冠病例中，第一波报告了162182例（35%），死亡4146例（2.5%）；第二波报告了275493例（59%），死亡3184例（1.1%）（P<0.01）。总体病死率为每1000人日（PD）1.16例，第一波期间从每1000 PD 1.80例降至第二波的每1000 PD 0.77例。第一波期间死亡风险高出1.49倍（调整后病死率比（aCFRR）1.49；95%置信区间：1.37-1.62），第二波降低35%（aCFRR 0.65；95%置信区间：0.59-0.70）。
第二波新冠病例和死亡负担更为显著；然而，随着疫情发展病死率下降。尽管如此，仍迫切需要研究新疗法并实施新冠大规模疫苗接种。
