Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
CREAF, 08193, Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain.
Sci Rep. 2022 Jun 20;12(1):10365. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-14480-8.
Fire activity has significantly changed in Europe over the last decades (1980-2020s), with the emergence of summers attaining unprecedented fire prone weather conditions. Here we report a significant shift in the non-stationary relationship linking fire weather conditions and fire intensity measured in terms of CO emissions released during biomass burning across a latitudinal gradient of European IPCC regions. The reported trends indicate that global warming is possibly inducing an incipient change on regional fire dynamics towards increased fire impacts in Europe, suggesting that emerging risks posed by exceptional fire-weather danger conditions may progressively exceed current wildfire suppression capabilities in the next decades and impact forest carbon sinks.
在过去几十年（1980 年代至 2020 年代），欧洲的火灾活动发生了显著变化，出现了前所未有的夏季火灾频发天气条件。在这里，我们报告了一个重要的转变，即在欧洲 IPCC 地区的纬度梯度上，与火灾天气条件和以 CO 排放衡量的燃烧生物质释放的火灾强度之间的非平稳关系发生了变化。报告的趋势表明，全球变暖可能正在引发欧洲区域火灾动力学的初步变化，导致火灾影响增加，这表明异常火灾危险条件带来的新风险可能在未来几十年内逐渐超过当前的野火抑制能力，并影响森林碳汇。
