Correlation between Population Density and COVID-19 Cases during the Third Wave in Malaysia: Effect of the Delta Variant.

UNLABELLED

In this study, we describe the incidence and distribution of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia at district level and determine their correlation with absolute population and population density, before and during the period that the Delta variant was dominant in Malaysia.

METHODS

Data on the number of locally transmitted COVID-19 cases in each of the 145 districts in Malaysia, between 20 September 2020 and 19 September 2021, were manually extracted from official reports. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases, population and population density of each district were described using choropleth maps. The correlation between population and population density with the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in each district in the pre-Delta dominant period (20 September 2020-29 June 2021) and during the Delta dominant period (30 June 2021-19 September 2021) were determined using Pearson's correlation.

RESULTS

COVID-19 cases were strongly correlated with both absolute population and population density (Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) = 0.87 and r = 0.78, respectively). A majority of the districts had higher numbers of COVID-19 cases during the Delta dominant period compared to the pre-Delta period. The correlation coefficient in the pre-Delta dominant period was r = 0.79 vs. r = 0.86 during the Delta dominant period, whereas the pre-Delta dominant population density was r = 0.72, and in the Delta dominant period, r = 0.76.

CONCLUSION

More populous and densely populated districts have a higher risk of transmission of COVID-19, especially with the Delta variant as the dominant circulating strain. Therefore, extra and more stringent control measures should be instituted in highly populated areas to control the spread of COVID-19.