Haeffel Gerald J
Department of Psychology, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2022 Jun 22;9(6):220099. doi: 10.1098/rsos.220099. eCollection 2022 Jun.
Psychological science is on an extraordinary winning streak. A review of the published literature shows that nearly all study hypotheses are supported. This means that either all the theories are correct, or the literature is biased towards positive findings. Results from large-scale replication projects and the prevalence of questionable research practices indicate the latter. This is a problem because science progresses from being wrong. For decades, there have been calls for better theories and the adoption of a strong inference approach to science. However, there is little reason to believe that psychological science is ready to change. Although recent developments like the open science movement have improved transparency and replicability, they have not addressed psychological science's method-oriented (rather than problem-oriented) mindset. Psychological science still does not embrace the scientific method of developing theories, conducting critical tests of those theories, detecting contradictory results, and revising (or disposing of) the theories accordingly. In this article, I review why psychologists must embrace being wrong and how the Registered Report format might be one strategy for stopping psychology's winning streak.
心理科学正处于连续不断的非凡成功之中。对已发表文献的回顾表明,几乎所有的研究假设都得到了支持。这意味着要么所有理论都是正确的,要么文献偏向于积极的研究结果。大规模重复验证项目的结果以及可疑研究行为的普遍存在表明是后者。这是一个问题,因为科学是在纠错中进步的。几十年来,一直有人呼吁要有更好的理论,并采用一种强有力的推理方法来进行科学研究。然而,几乎没有理由相信心理科学已经准备好做出改变。尽管诸如开放科学运动等近期的发展提高了透明度和可重复性,但它们并没有解决心理科学以方法为导向(而非以问题为导向)的思维方式。心理科学仍然没有接受通过提出理论、对这些理论进行批判性检验、发现矛盾结果并相应地修改(或摒弃)理论的科学方法。在本文中,我将探讨心理学家为何必须接受犯错,以及注册报告格式如何可能成为终结心理科学连胜纪录的一种策略。