1972年10月至1985年5月期间流感流行对美国死亡率的影响。
Impact of influenza epidemics on mortality in the United States from October 1972 to May 1985.
作者信息
Lui K J, Kendal A P
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 1987 Jun;77(6):712-6. doi: 10.2105/ajph.77.6.712.
Abstract
Baseline levels of mortality in the United States in the absence of influenza epidemics were estimated using cyclical regression models applied to national vital statistics from October 1972 to May 1985. Models were developed by age and by region. Results from 1983 to 1985 are preliminary. More mortality than predicted by the theoretical baseline occurred during nine influenza seasons. Epidemics with high morbidity in children and young adults occurred in 1976/77 and 1978/79. Regional differences in the impact of influenza occurred occasionally. Total influenza-associated excess mortality in six epidemics from the winters of 1972/73 to 1980/81 was about 200,000. About 80-90 per cent of excess mortality occurred in persons over 64 years old.
摘要
利用应用于1972年10月至1985年5月全国生命统计数据的周期性回归模型，估算了美国在没有流感流行情况下的基线死亡率水平。模型按年龄和地区制定。1983年至1985年的结果为初步结果。在九个流感季节中，实际死亡率高于理论基线预测值。1976/77年和1978/79年出现了儿童和年轻人发病率高的疫情。流感影响的地区差异偶尔出现。1972/73年冬季至1980/81年冬季的六次疫情中，与流感相关的总超额死亡率约为20万。约80%-90%的超额死亡率发生在64岁以上人群中。
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