Deb Pragyan, Furceri Davide, Jimenez Daniel, Kothari Siddharth, Ostry Jonathan D, Tawk Nour
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA.
Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, UK.
Swiss J Econ Stat. 2022;158(1):3. doi: 10.1186/s41937-021-00082-0. Epub 2022 Jan 12.
This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high-frequency indicators of economic activity-nitrogen dioxide (NO) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices-for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for nonlinear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.
本文利用一个涵盖46个国家、时间跨度为2020年12月16日至2021年6月20日的跨国每日疫苗接种数据库以及经济活动高频指标（二氧化氮（NO）排放量、一氧化碳（CO）排放量和谷歌移动指数），对新冠疫苗推出的经济影响进行了实证研究。通过疫苗接种量的意外变化，我们发现人均疫苗接种量的意外增加与经济活动的显著增加相关。我们还发现了疫苗的非线性效应证据，即接种率较高时边际经济收益更大。国家特定条件起着重要作用，若实施严格的防控措施或国家正经历严重疫情爆发，则经济收益较低。最后，研究结果提供了跨境溢出效应的证据，凸显了各国公平获得疫苗的重要性。
