Malone Center for Engineering in Healthcare, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Science, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Nat Med. 2022 Jul;28(7):1455-1460. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-01894-0. Epub 2022 Jul 21.
Early recognition and treatment of sepsis are linked to improved patient outcomes. Machine learning-based early warning systems may reduce the time to recognition, but few systems have undergone clinical evaluation. In this prospective, multi-site cohort study, we examined the association between patient outcomes and provider interaction with a deployed sepsis alert system called the Targeted Real-time Early Warning System (TREWS). During the study, 590,736 patients were monitored by TREWS across five hospitals. We focused our analysis on 6,877 patients with sepsis who were identified by the alert before initiation of antibiotic therapy. Adjusting for patient presentation and severity, patients in this group whose alert was confirmed by a provider within 3 h of the alert had a reduced in-hospital mortality rate (3.3%, confidence interval (CI) 1.7, 5.1%, adjusted absolute reduction, and 18.7%, CI 9.4, 27.0%, adjusted relative reduction), organ failure and length of stay compared with patients whose alert was not confirmed by a provider within 3 h. Improvements in mortality rate (4.5%, CI 0.8, 8.3%, adjusted absolute reduction) and organ failure were larger among those patients who were additionally flagged as high risk. Our findings indicate that early warning systems have the potential to identify sepsis patients early and improve patient outcomes and that sepsis patients who would benefit the most from early treatment can be identified and prioritized at the time of the alert.
早期识别和治疗脓毒症与改善患者预后有关。基于机器学习的早期预警系统可能会缩短识别时间,但很少有系统经过临床评估。在这项前瞻性、多中心队列研究中,我们研究了患者预后与部署的脓毒症预警系统(称为靶向实时预警系统[TREWS])之间的关联。在研究期间,有 590736 名患者接受了 TREWS 的监测。我们将分析重点放在了 6877 名在开始使用抗生素治疗之前通过警报识别出的脓毒症患者身上。在调整了患者的表现和严重程度后,在警报发出后 3 小时内,提供者确认警报的患者的住院死亡率(3.3%,置信区间[CI]为 1.7%至 5.1%,调整后的绝对降低率为 18.7%,CI 为 9.4%至 27.0%,调整后的相对降低率)、器官衰竭和住院时间均低于在 3 小时内未被提供者确认警报的患者。在那些被额外标记为高风险的患者中,死亡率(4.5%,CI 为 0.8%至 8.3%,调整后的绝对降低率)和器官衰竭的改善更大。我们的研究结果表明,早期预警系统有潜力尽早识别脓毒症患者并改善患者预后,并且可以在发出警报时识别并优先考虑最需要早期治疗的脓毒症患者。