State Key Laboratory of Advanced Design and Manufacturing for Vehicle Body, Hunan University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2012;13(3):300-7. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2011.653841.
The objective of this research was to study the risk factors that significantly influence the severity of intersection crashes for vehicle occupants, as well as for pedestrians and other vulnerable road users.
Logistic regression was applied as the method in this study to analyze a data set of intersection crashes involving casualties in Victoria, Australia, for the period January 2000 to December 2009.
Seven risk factors obtained were found to be significantly associated with the severity of intersection crashes, including driver age and gender, speed zone, traffic control type, time of day, crash type, and seat belt usage.
This study found that male drivers as well as older drivers (age 65 and above) had higher odds of being involved in fatal intersection crashes. Intersection crashes occurring between midnight and early morning (12:00 a.m. to 5:59 a.m.), in 100 km/h speed zones, or with no traffic control had a higher odds of a fatal outcome than their counterpart categories. Furthermore, intersection crashes involving pedestrians or a non-seat belt-wearing driver were more likely to lead to a fatal outcome. In general, identification of risk factors and the discussion of the odds ratio between levels on the impact of the intersection crash severity would be beneficial for road safety stakeholders to develop initiatives to reduce the severity of intersection crashes.
本研究旨在研究显著影响车辆乘员、行人和其他弱势道路使用者交叉口碰撞严重程度的风险因素。
本研究采用逻辑回归方法分析了澳大利亚维多利亚州 2000 年 1 月至 2009 年 12 月期间涉及伤亡的交叉口碰撞事故数据集。
研究发现，有七个风险因素与交叉口碰撞的严重程度显著相关，包括驾驶员年龄和性别、限速区、交通控制类型、一天中的时间、碰撞类型和安全带使用情况。
本研究发现，男性驾驶员和年龄较大的驾驶员（65 岁及以上）发生致命交叉口碰撞的可能性更高。午夜至清晨（12:00 至 5:59）发生的交叉口碰撞、限速 100 公里/小时的交叉口碰撞或无交通管制的交叉口碰撞发生致命后果的可能性高于其对应类别。此外，涉及行人和未系安全带的驾驶员的交叉口碰撞更有可能导致致命后果。一般来说，确定风险因素并讨论交叉口碰撞严重程度的影响之间的比值对于道路安全利益相关者制定减少交叉口碰撞严重程度的举措是有益的。
