高维非平稳时间序列的自适应贝叶斯谱分析
Adaptive Bayesian Spectral Analysis of High-dimensional Nonstationary Time Series.
作者信息
Li Zeda, Rosen Ori, Ferrarelli Fabio, Krafty Robert T
机构信息
Department of Information System and Statistics, Baruch College, The City University of New York.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Texas at El Paso.
出版信息
J Comput Graph Stat. 2021;30(3):794-807. doi: 10.1080/10618600.2020.1868305. Epub 2021 Mar 1.
This article introduces a nonparametric approach to spectral analysis of a high-dimensional multivariate nonstationary time series. The procedure is based on a novel frequency-domain factor model that provides a flexible yet parsimonious representation of spectral matrices from a large number of simultaneously observed time series. Real and imaginary parts of the factor loading matrices are modeled independently using a prior that is formulated from the tensor product of penalized splines and multiplicative gamma process shrinkage priors, allowing for infinitely many factors with loadings increasingly shrunk towards zero as the column index increases. Formulated in a fully Bayesian framework, the time series is adaptively partitioned into approximately stationary segments, where both the number and locations of partition points are assumed unknown. Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) techniques are used to accommodate the unknown number of segments, and a conditional Whittle likelihood-based Gibbs sampler is developed for efficient sampling within segments. By averaging over the distribution of partitions, the proposed method can approximate both abrupt and slowly varying changes in spectral matrices. Performance of the proposed model is evaluated by extensive simulations and demonstrated through the analysis of high-density electroencephalography.
本文介绍了一种用于高维多元非平稳时间序列谱分析的非参数方法。该过程基于一种新颖的频域因子模型,该模型能对大量同时观测的时间序列的谱矩阵提供灵活而简约的表示。因子载荷矩阵的实部和虚部分别使用一种先验进行建模,该先验由惩罚样条的张量积和乘法伽马过程收缩先验构成,允许存在无限多个因子,且随着列索引增加,载荷逐渐向零收缩。在全贝叶斯框架下,时间序列被自适应地划分为近似平稳的段,其中分割点的数量和位置均假定为未知。采用随机近似蒙特卡罗(SAMC)技术来处理段数未知的情况,并开发了一种基于条件惠特尔似然的吉布斯采样器以在段内进行高效采样。通过对分割分布进行平均,所提出的方法能够近似谱矩阵中的突变和缓慢变化。通过大量模拟评估了所提模型的性能,并通过高密度脑电图分析进行了验证。