Sung Hyungun
School of Urban Studies, Hanyang University, 222, Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 04763, South Korea.
Cities. 2022 Dec;131:103911. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2022.103911. Epub 2022 Aug 8.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions to control human mobility are important in preventing COVID-19 transmission. These interventions must also help effectively control the urban mobility of vehicles, which can be a safer travel mode during the pandemic, at any time and place. However, few studies have identified the effectiveness of vehicle mobility in terms of time and place. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions at both local and national levels on intra- and inter-urban vehicle mobility by time of day in Seoul, South Korea, by applying the autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables. The study found that social distancing measures at the national level were effective for intra-urban vehicle mobility, especially at night-time, but not for inter-urban mobility. Information provision with emergency text messages by cell phone was effective in reducing vehicle mobility in daytime and night-time, but not during morning peak hours. At the local level, both restrictions on late-night transit operations and stricter social distancing measures were mostly significant in reducing night-time mobility only in intra-urban areas. The study also indicates when (what time of the day), where (which area within the city), and which combination strategy could be more effective in containing urban vehicle mobility. This study recommends that restrictions on human mobility should also be extended to vehicle mobility, especially in inter-urban areas and during morning peak hours, by systematically designing diverse non-pharmaceutical interventions.
控制人员流动的非药物干预措施对于预防新冠病毒传播至关重要。这些干预措施还必须有助于有效控制车辆的城市流动，在疫情期间，车辆出行在任何时间和地点都可能是一种更安全的出行方式。然而，很少有研究确定车辆流动在时间和地点方面的有效性。本研究通过应用带外生变量的自回归积分移动平均模型，展示了韩国首尔在地方和国家层面非药物干预措施对城市内部和城市间车辆流动在一天中不同时段的有效性。研究发现，国家层面的社交距离措施对城市内部车辆流动有效，尤其是在夜间，但对城市间流动无效。通过手机发送紧急短信提供信息在减少白天和夜间的车辆流动方面有效，但在早高峰时段无效。在地方层面，限制深夜公交运营和更严格的社交距离措施大多仅在城市内部显著减少了夜间流动。该研究还指出了何时（一天中的什么时间）、何地（城市内的哪个区域）以及哪种组合策略在控制城市车辆流动方面可能更有效。本研究建议，通过系统设计各种非药物干预措施，对人员流动的限制也应扩展到车辆流动，特别是在城市间区域和早高峰时段。
