Althobaity Yehya, Wu Jianhong, Tildesley Michael J
The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.
Department of Mathematics, Taif University, Taif, P. O. Box 11099, Saudi Arabia.
Infect Dis Model. 2022 Sep;7(3):545-560. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.005. Epub 2022 Aug 20.
In the early stages of the pandemic, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Arab Gulf region relied on non-pharmaceutical therapies to limit the effect of the pandemic, much like other nations across the world. In comparison to other nations in the area or globally, these interventions were successful at lowering the healthcare burden. This was accomplished via the deterioration of the economy, education, and a variety of other societal activities. By the end of 2020, the promise of effective vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 have been realized, and vaccination programs have begun in developed countries, followed by the rest of the world. Despite this, there is still a long way to go in the fight against the disease. In order to explore disease transmission, vaccine rollout and prioritisation, as well as behavioural dynamics, we relied on an age-structured compartmental model. We examine how individual and social behaviour changes in response to the initiation of vaccination campaigns and the relaxation of non-pharmacological treatments. Overall, vaccination remains the most effective method of containing the disease and resuming normal life. Additionally, we evaluate several vaccination prioritisation schemes based on age group, behavioural responses, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination rollout speed. We applied our model to four Arab Gulf nations (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman), which were chosen for their low mortality rate compared to other countries in the region or worldwide, as well as their demographic and economic settings. We fitted the model using actual pandemic data in these countries. Our results suggest that vaccinations focused on the elderly and rapid vaccine distribution are critical for reducing disease resurgence. Our result also reinforces the cautious note that early relaxation of safety measures may compromise the vaccine's short-term advantages.
在疫情早期,沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯海湾地区的其他国家与世界其他国家一样,依靠非药物疗法来限制疫情的影响。与该地区其他国家或全球其他国家相比,这些干预措施成功减轻了医疗负担。这是通过经济、教育和各种其他社会活动的恶化来实现的。到2020年底,针对严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的有效疫苗的前景已经实现,发达国家已开始实施疫苗接种计划,随后世界其他国家也纷纷跟进。尽管如此,抗击该疾病的道路仍很漫长。为了探索疾病传播、疫苗推广和优先级确定以及行为动态,我们依赖于一个年龄结构的隔间模型。我们研究了个人和社会行为如何因疫苗接种运动的启动和非药物治疗的放松而发生变化。总体而言,接种疫苗仍然是控制疾病和恢复正常生活的最有效方法。此外,我们根据年龄组、行为反应、疫苗有效性和疫苗推广速度评估了几种疫苗接种优先级方案。我们将我们的模型应用于四个阿拉伯海湾国家(沙特阿拉伯、巴林、阿拉伯联合酋长国和阿曼),选择这些国家是因为与该地区其他国家或全球其他国家相比,它们的死亡率较低,以及它们的人口和经济状况。我们使用这些国家的实际疫情数据对模型进行了拟合。我们的结果表明,针对老年人的疫苗接种和快速的疫苗分发对于减少疾病复发至关重要。我们的结果还强化了一个谨慎的观点,即过早放松安全措施可能会损害疫苗的短期优势。