Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Department of Population Health Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Sci Rep. 2022 Sep 1;12(1):14825. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-19081-z.
Understanding how contact patterns arise from crowd movement is crucial for assessing the spread of infection at mass gathering events. Here we study contact patterns from Wi-Fi mobility data of large sports and entertainment events in the Johan Cruijff ArenA stadium in Amsterdam. We show that crowd movement behaviour at mass gathering events is not homogeneous in time, but naturally consists of alternating periods of movement and rest. As a result, contact duration distributions are heavy-tailed, an observation which is not explained by models assuming that pedestrian contacts are analogous to collisions in the kinetic gas model. We investigate the effect of heavy-tailed contact duration patterns on the spread of infection using various random walk models. We show how different types of intermittent movement behaviour interact with a time-dependent infection probability. Our results point to the existence of a crossover point where increased contact duration presents a higher level of transmission risk than increasing the number of contacts. In addition, we show that different types of intermittent movement behaviour give rise to different mass-action kinetics, but also show that neither one of two mass-action mechanisms uniquely describes events.
了解人群移动如何产生接触模式对于评估大规模聚集事件中的感染传播至关重要。在这里，我们研究了阿姆斯特丹约翰·克鲁伊夫竞技场（Johan Cruijff ArenA）大型体育和娱乐活动的 Wi-Fi 移动数据中的接触模式。我们表明，大规模聚集活动中的人群移动行为在时间上不是均匀的，而是自然地由移动和休息交替的时期组成。因此，接触持续时间分布呈重尾分布，这一观察结果不能用假设行人接触类似于动力学气体模型中的碰撞的模型来解释。我们使用各种随机游走模型研究了重尾接触持续时间模式对感染传播的影响。我们展示了不同类型的间歇性运动行为如何与随时间变化的感染概率相互作用。我们的研究结果表明，存在一个交叉点，即增加接触持续时间比增加接触次数会带来更高的传播风险。此外，我们表明，不同类型的间歇性运动行为会产生不同的质量作用动力学，但也表明，两种质量作用机制都没有唯一地描述事件。
