Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.
The Pasteur Institute, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Epidemiol Infect. 2022 Sep 12;150:e169. doi: 10.1017/S0950268822001431.
Measles resurged in Vietnam between 2018 and 2020, especially in the Southern region. The proportion of children with measles infection showed quite some variation at the provincial level. We applied a spatio-temporal endemic-epidemic modelling framework for age-stratified infectious disease counts using measles surveillance data collected in Southern Vietnam between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2020. We found that disease transmission within age groups was greatest in young children aged 0-4 years whereas a relatively high between-group transmission was observed in older age groups (5-14 years, 15-24 years and 25+ years groups). At the provincial level, spatial transmission followed an age-dependent distance decay with measles spread mainly depending on local and neighbouring transmission. Our study helped to clarify the measles transmission dynamics in a more detailed fashion with respect to age strata, time and space. Findings from this study may help determine proper strategies in measles outbreak control including promotion of age-targeted intervention programmes in specific areas.
2018 年至 2020 年期间，越南麻疹疫情死灰复燃，尤其是在南部地区。各省儿童麻疹感染比例存在明显差异。我们应用了一种时空流行-流行建模框架，对 2018 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 6 月 30 日在越南南部收集的麻疹监测数据进行了年龄分层传染病计数分析。结果表明，0-4 岁儿童组内疾病传播最大，而在年龄较大的组（5-14 岁、15-24 岁和 25 岁及以上组）中观察到相对较高的组间传播。在省级层面，空间传播遵循年龄相关的距离衰减，麻疹传播主要取决于本地和邻近地区的传播。本研究有助于更详细地阐明麻疹在时间和空间上的传播动态。这项研究的结果可能有助于确定麻疹暴发控制的适当策略，包括在特定地区推广针对年龄的干预计划。
