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建立具有离散时滞的 SARS-CoV-2 感染随机体内动力学模型。

Modeling the stochastic within-host dynamics SARS-CoV-2 infection with discrete delay.

机构信息

Basic Sciences Department, Faculty of Engineering, The British University in Egypt, Cairo, Egypt.

Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura, 35516, Egypt.

出版信息

Theory Biosci. 2022 Nov;141(4):365-374. doi: 10.1007/s12064-022-00379-5. Epub 2022 Oct 3.

Abstract

In this paper, a new mathematical model that describes the dynamics of the within-host COVID-19 epidemic is formulated. We show the stochastic dynamics of Target-Latent-Infected-Virus free within the human body with discrete delay and noise. Positivity and uniqueness of the solutions are established. Our study shows the extinction and persistence of the disease inside the human body through the stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] and the endemic equilibrium [Formula: see text], respectively. Moreover, we show the impact of delay tactics and noise on the extinction of the disease. The most interesting result is even if the deterministic system is inevitably pandemic at a specific point, extinction will become possible in the stochastic version of our model.

摘要

本文构建了一个新的数学模型来描述 COVID-19 病毒在宿主体内的动力学行为。我们展示了具有离散时滞和噪声的人体内无靶标-潜伏-感染-病毒的随机动力学。建立了解的正定性和唯一性。通过对无病平衡点[Formula: see text]和地方病平衡点[Formula: see text]的稳定性分析,分别研究了疾病在人体内的灭绝和持续存在。此外,我们还表明了延迟策略和噪声对疾病灭绝的影响。最有趣的结果是,即使在特定的时间点确定性系统不可避免地出现大流行,我们模型的随机版本也可能使疾病灭绝。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8fca/9636122/f822ef1bd515/12064_2022_379_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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