Clayton D, Schifflers E
Stat Med. 1987 Jun;6(4):449-67. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780060405.
A main concern of descriptive epidemiologists is the presentation and interpretation of temporal variations in cancer rates. In its simplest form, this problem is that of the analysis of a set of rates arranged in a two-way table by age group and calendar period. We review the modern approach to the analysis of such data which justifies traditional methods of age standardization in terms of the multiplicative risk model. We discuss the use of this model when the temporal variations are due to purely secular (period) influences and when they are attributable to generational (cohort) influences. Finally we demonstrate the serious difficulties which attend the interpretation of regular trends. The methods described are illustrated by examples for incidence rates of bladder cancer in Birmingham, U.K., mortality from bladder cancer in Italy, and mortality from lung cancer in Belgium.
描述性流行病学家主要关注的是癌症发病率随时间变化的呈现与解读。最基本的形式是，该问题就是分析按年龄组和日历时间段排列在双向表中的一组发病率。我们回顾了分析此类数据的现代方法，这种方法在乘法风险模型的基础上证明了传统年龄标准化方法的合理性。我们讨论了在时间变化纯粹是由于长期（时期）影响以及由于代际（队列）影响时该模型的使用。最后，我们展示了解读规律趋势时所面临的严重困难。通过英国伯明翰市膀胱癌发病率、意大利膀胱癌死亡率以及比利时肺癌死亡率的实例来说明所描述的方法。
