Caygill C P, Hill M J, Hall C N, Kirkham J S, Northfield T C
Norman Tanner Gastroenterology Unit, St James Hospital, Balham.
Gut. 1987 Aug;28(8):924-8. doi: 10.1136/gut.28.8.924.
Of 5018 patients who had undergone gastric surgery at St James Hospital, Balham, at least 25 years ago, death certificates have been received for 2768, whilst 1746 patients are still alive and are flagged (Office of Populations, Censuses and Surveys (OPCS) will notify us of their death and its cause) and only 504 could not be traced. Mortality from cancers of various organs has been determined using a 'years at risk' calculation in five year bands. There was no increase in mortality risk from any cancers during the first 15 postoperative years, but from 20 years after operation there was a significant excess risk not only of cancer of the stomach (4.5-fold), but also of the large bowel (1.6-fold), bronchus (3.9-fold), pancreas (4.0-fold), biliary tract (9.1-fold), oesophagus (2.3-fold), bladder (2.4-fold), breast (4.0-fold), and cancer of all sites (3.3-fold). These findings are consistent with the production in the operated-upon stomach of circulating carcinogens with a 20 year latency period.
在至少25年前于巴勒姆圣詹姆斯医院接受过胃部手术的5018名患者中,已收到2768人的死亡证明,1746名患者仍在世并已被标记(人口普查与调查办公室(OPCS)会将其死亡情况及死因通知我们),只有504人无法追查。已使用“风险年数”计算方法,按五年时间段确定了各器官癌症的死亡率。术后头15年,任何癌症的死亡风险均未增加,但术后20年起,不仅胃癌(4.5倍)、还有大肠癌(1.6倍)、支气管癌(3.9倍)、胰腺癌(4.0倍)、胆道癌(9.1倍)、食管癌(2.3倍)、膀胱癌(2.4倍)、乳腺癌(4.0倍)以及所有部位癌症(3.3倍)的死亡风险均显著增加。这些发现与在接受手术的胃部产生具有20年潜伏期的循环致癌物相符。