Key Laboratory of Special Environment Road Engineering of Hunan Province, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China.
Shenzhen Transportation Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518003, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jun 27;19(13):7884. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19137884.
(1) Background: COVID-19 is still affecting people's daily lives. In the past two years of epidemic control, a traffic control policy has been an important way to block the spread of the epidemic. (2) Objectives: To delve into the blocking effects of different traffic control policies on COVID-19 transmission. (3) Methods: Based on the classical SIR model, this paper designs and improves the coefficient of the infectious rate, and it builds a quantitative SEIR model that considers the infectivity of the exposed for traffic control policies. Taking Changsha, a typical city of epidemic prevention and control, as a study case, this paper simulates the epidemic trends under three traffic control policies adopted in Changsha: home quarantine, road traffic control, and public transport suspension. Meanwhile, to explore the time sensitivity of all traffic control policies, this paper sets four distinct scenarios where the traffic control policies were implemented at the first medical case, delayed by 3, 5, and 7 days, respectively. (4) Results: The implementation of the traffic control policies has decreased the peak value of the population of the infective in Changsha by 66.03%, and it has delayed the peak period by 58 days; with the home-quarantine policy, the road traffic control policy, and the public transport suspension policy decreasing the peak value of the population of the infective by 56.81%, 39.72%, and 45.31% and delaying the peak period by 31, 18, and 21 days, respectively; in the four scenarios where the traffic control policies had been implemented at the first medical case, delayed by 3, 5, and 7 days, respectively, the variations of both the peak value and the peak period timespan of confirmed cases under the home-quarantine policy would have been greater than under the road traffic control and the public transport suspension policies. (5) Conclusions: The implementation of traffic control policies is significantly effective in blocking the epidemic across the city of Changsha. The home-quarantine policy has the highest time sensitivity: the earlier this policy is implemented, the more significant its blocking effect on the spread of the epidemic.
（1）背景：新冠疫情仍在影响人们的日常生活。在过去两年的疫情防控中，交通管控政策是阻断疫情传播的重要手段。（2）目的：深入探讨不同交通管控政策对新冠疫情传播的阻断效果。（3）方法：基于经典的 SIR 模型，本文设计并改进了传染率系数，构建了一个考虑暴露易感性的交通管控政策的定量 SEIR 模型。以长沙这个典型的防疫城市为研究案例，模拟了长沙实施的三种交通管控政策（居家隔离、道路管控、公共交通停运）下的疫情趋势。同时，为了探究所有交通管控政策的时间敏感性，本文设置了交通管控政策分别在首例病例出现的第 0、3、5、7 天实施的四个不同场景。（4）结果：交通管控政策的实施使长沙市的感染人口峰值降低了 66.03%，并将高峰期推迟了 58 天；居家隔离政策、道路管控政策和公共交通停运政策分别使感染人口峰值降低了 56.81%、39.72%和 45.31%，并将高峰期推迟了 31、18 和 21 天；在交通管控政策分别在首例病例出现的第 0、3、5、7 天实施的四个场景中，居家隔离政策的确诊病例峰值和高峰期时长变化都大于道路管控和公共交通停运政策。（5）结论：交通管控政策对长沙市的疫情防控具有显著的阻断效果。居家隔离政策的时间敏感性最高：该政策实施得越早，对疫情传播的阻断效果越显著。
