Faculty of Geoengineering, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, 10-719 Olsztyn, Poland.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 2;20(3):2689. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20032689.
Green energy production has become a common and recognized method of electricity generation. Giving up reliance on non-renewable energy sources is an important trend in the economies of many countries. The paper presents an analysis of the impact of indicators like increased green energy production on the level of vulnerability to climate change. The model of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (VCC) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (considering three aspects: exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity of the studied spatial unit/society) was applied. Sensitivity analysis, spatial heterogeneity, and temporal dynamics of indicators characterizing changes in electricity consumption, renewable energy production, greenhouse gas emissions, and variability of financial losses due to extreme weather events and their number were implemented. Several findings arose. First, the vulnerability to climate change (the level of the VCC index), does not decrease after the implementation of a single action, like the development of green energy production. The level of index of vulnerability to climate change (VCC1) from the reference year (2017) relative to VCC2 (2021) has changed slightly, despite the development of RES. The variation does not exceed a 1% reduction in the value of the VCC1 index. Second, the decrease in the level of the vulnerability requires global, coordinated action. The value of the VCC3 index, reflecting, including changes in green energy production (X15), electricity consumption/inhabitant (X38), and green-house gas emissions (X14), exhibited more favorably the impact of these indicators on vulnerability to climate change, compared to the VCC1 reference value. In eleven poviats, the VCC3 index decreased between 1 and 4%. In seven of these poviats, green energy production increased, resulting in an average 10% decrease in the X15 indicator, the X14 indicator representing green-house gas emissions decreased by an average of 7%, while the X38 indicator describing electricity consumption/per capita decreased by an average of 16%. Third, harmonized and inclusive action by the population holds the potential to be the clue to reducing vulnerability to climate change.
绿色能源生产已成为发电的常见和公认方法。放弃对不可再生能源的依赖是许多国家经济的重要趋势。本文分析了增加绿色能源生产等指标对气候变化脆弱性水平的影响。应用了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）推荐的气候变化脆弱性指数（VCC）模型（考虑了研究空间单元/社会的三个方面：暴露、脆弱性和适应能力）。实施了描述电力消耗、可再生能源生产、温室气体排放以及由于极端天气事件及其数量而导致的财务损失变化的指标的敏感性分析、空间异质性和时间动态。得出了几个发现。首先，气候变化脆弱性（VCC 指数的水平）不会在单一行动（如绿色能源生产的发展）实施后降低。相对于 VCC2（2021 年），参考年（2017 年）的气候变化脆弱性指数（VCC1）水平略有变化，尽管可再生能源有所发展。变化不超过 VCC1 指数值降低 1%。其次，降低脆弱性水平需要全球协调行动。反映包括绿色能源生产（X15）、人均电力消耗（X38）和温室气体排放（X14）变化在内的 VCC3 指数更有利地反映了这些指标对气候变化脆弱性的影响，与 VCC1 参考值相比。在 11 个波瓦提，VCC3 指数下降了 1%至 4%。在这 7 个波瓦提中，绿色能源生产有所增加，导致 X15 指标平均下降 10%，X14 指标代表温室气体排放量平均下降 7%，而 X38 指标描述人均电力消耗平均下降 16%。第三，人口的协调包容行动有可能成为降低气候变化脆弱性的关键。
Zotero 插件
