Thornton Philip K, Ericksen Polly J, Herrero Mario, Challinor Andrew J
CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), ILRI, PO Box 30709, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya.
Glob Chang Biol. 2014 Nov;20(11):3313-28. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12581. Epub 2014 Apr 26.
The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades.
绝大多数气候变化影响研究的重点是平均气候的变化。就气候模型输出而言，这些变化比气候变率的变化更为显著。通过专注于气候平均值的变化，气候变化对生物和人类系统的全面影响可能被严重低估了。在此，我们简要回顾气候变率变化和极端事件频率对生物和粮食系统可能产生的影响，重点关注发展中世界。我们展示了新的分析，初步将气候变率的增加与未来粮食不安全状况的加剧联系起来。我们考虑了人们应对气候变率和极端事件的方式以及他们未来可能如何适应。突出了关键的知识和数据空白。这些包括不同气候压力对植物生长发育的时间和相互作用，特别是在较高温度下，以及气候变率和极端事件变化对有害生物-杂草-病害复合体的影响对作物、牲畜和农业系统的影响。我们强调需要重新构建研究问题，以便能够为整个粮食系统的决策者提供可采取行动的答案，以及对气候和环境监测进行投资的必要性。更好地理解气候变化对生物和粮食系统的全面影响是能够有效应对气候变率和极端事件对人类脆弱性和粮食安全的影响的关键一步，特别是在未来几十年面临养活快速增长人口挑战的以农业为基础的发展中国家。
