Nouhi Mojtaba, Heydari Majid, Goudarzi Zahra, Shahtaheri Rahil Sadat, Ahmadzaeh Azadeh, Olyaeemanesh Alireza
National Institute for Health Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
National Agency for Strategic Research in Medical Education, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran.
Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2022 Dec 22;36:164. doi: 10.47176/mjiri.36.164. eCollection 2022.
Although the evidence emphasizes that COVID-9 incurs considerable primary effects on public economics and health, it is not so clear what the future effects of this pandemic might be. This study aims to identify the primary and future effects of COVID-19 on the health system. Futures Wheel (FW) method was used to find the primary and future effects of COVID-19 on eight important dimensions of the health system, including the six building blocks. To gather relevant information, PubMed, SCOPUS, Web of Knowledge, and other sources were searched to find potential studies reporting the potential effects of COVID-19 on the health system. Following that, an expert panel with nine participants to depict the findings was held. Fifty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. The participants reached a consensus on nineteen main primary effects of COVID-19 that could impose 26 main future effects with specific risk opportunities on different dimensions of the health system. Workforce, stewardship and health policy, and infrastructure and hospital capacity dimensions were the most affected by COVID-19 in both the primary and future timeframe. Most of the signals of COVID-19-related opportunities could stem from health technologies and research systems, and service delivery dimensions. COVID-19 comes with considerable risks, especially for the health system governance and workforce dimensions. There are some opportunities to improve the resilience of the health system by using digital health platforms, promoting health literacy of the population, and also adopting inclusive health policy-making processes.
尽管有证据强调新冠疫情对公共经济和健康造成了相当大的主要影响，但这场大流行的未来影响尚不清楚。本研究旨在确定新冠疫情对卫生系统的主要和未来影响。采用未来轮（FW）方法来找出新冠疫情对卫生系统八个重要维度（包括六个组成部分）的主要和未来影响。为收集相关信息，检索了PubMed、SCOPUS、Web of Knowledge及其他来源，以查找报告新冠疫情对卫生系统潜在影响的潜在研究。随后，召开了一个由九名参与者组成的专家小组会议来描述研究结果。54项研究符合纳入标准。参与者就新冠疫情的19个主要主要影响达成了共识，这些影响可能在卫生系统的不同维度上带来26个具有特定风险机会的主要未来影响。在主要和未来阶段，劳动力、管理与卫生政策以及基础设施与医院容量维度受新冠疫情影响最大。与新冠疫情相关的机会信号大多可能源于卫生技术和研究系统以及服务提供维度。新冠疫情带来了相当大的风险，尤其是对卫生系统治理和劳动力维度而言。通过使用数字健康平台、提高民众的健康素养以及采用包容性的卫生政策制定过程，存在一些提高卫生系统复原力的机会。
