Razzak J A, Luby S P
Department of Community Health Sciences, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
Int J Epidemiol. 1998 Oct;27(5):866-70. doi: 10.1093/ije/27.5.866.
Road traffic accidents (RTA) are an important yet preventable cause of death and disability in developing countries like Pakistan. Yet accurate epidemiological data on injuries in developing country injuries is often difficult to obtain. We applied the capture-recapture method to estimate the death and injury rates due to RTA in Karachi.
We applied the two-sample capture-recapture method using traffic police records as one source of capture and the logs of a non-government ambulance service as the second capture source for the same 10 months and 20 days for which 1994 data were available. We generated a conservative adjusted estimate of injuries and deaths by considering entries in the two sources as matched if they reported the same date, time, and place, and at least one of the other matching variables, of name, vehicle registration number, vehicle types or patient outcome. We then compared the estimated rates with the police rates.
In 1994 police reported 544 deaths and 793 injuries due to RTA while ambulance records noted 343 deaths and 2048 injuries. The capture-recapture analysis estimated at least 972 (95% CI: 912-1031) deaths and 18,936 (95% CI: 15,507-22,342) injuries attributable to RTA during the study period. Official sources counted only 56% of deaths and 4% of serious injuries. The estimated rates for the year 1994 were 185 injuries and 11.2 deaths per 100,000 population.
Road traffic injuries and deaths in Karachi are a much more substantial health problem than is evident from official statistics.
在巴基斯坦这样的发展中国家，道路交通事故（RTA）是导致死亡和残疾的一个重要但可预防的原因。然而，在发展中国家，关于伤害的准确流行病学数据往往难以获得。我们应用捕获-再捕获方法来估计卡拉奇道路交通事故导致的死亡率和伤害率。
我们应用两样本捕获-再捕获方法，将交通警察记录作为一个捕获源，将一家非政府救护车服务机构的日志作为第二个捕获源，针对可获取1994年数据的相同10个月零20天进行统计。如果两个来源报告的日期、时间和地点相同，并且在姓名、车辆登记号码、车辆类型或患者结局等其他匹配变量中至少有一个相同，我们就将两个来源中的记录视为匹配，从而得出对伤害和死亡的保守调整估计值。然后，我们将估计率与警方统计的比率进行比较。
1994年警方报告道路交通事故导致544人死亡和793人受伤，而救护车记录显示有343人死亡和2048人受伤。捕获-再捕获分析估计，在研究期间，道路交通事故导致至少972人死亡（95%置信区间：912 - 1031）和18,936人受伤（95%置信区间：15,507 - 22,342）。官方统计仅涵盖了56%的死亡人数和4%的重伤人数。1994年的估计比率为每10万人口中有185人受伤和11.2人死亡。
卡拉奇的道路交通事故伤亡情况是一个比官方统计数据所显示的更为严重的健康问题。
