Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731, People's Republic of China.
Department of Ophthalmology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, People's Republic of China.
Sci Rep. 2023 Apr 3;13(1):5430. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-32367-0.
This is a retrospective analysis. Quantitative prediction of the children's and adolescents' spherical equivalent based on their variable-length historical vision records. From October 2019 to March 2022, we examined uncorrected visual acuity, sphere, astigmatism, axis, corneal curvature and axial length of 75,172 eyes from 37,586 children and adolescents aged 6-20 years in Chengdu, China. 80% samples consist of the training set, the 10% form the validation set and the remaining 10% form the testing set. Time-Aware Long Short-Term Memory was used to quantitatively predict the children's and adolescents' spherical equivalent within two and a half years. The mean absolute prediction error on the testing set was 0.103 ± 0.140 (D) for spherical equivalent, ranging from 0.040 ± 0.050 (D) to 0.187 ± 0.168 (D) if we consider different lengths of historical records and different prediction durations. Time-Aware Long Short-Term Memory was applied to captured the temporal features in irregularly sampled time series, which is more in line with the characteristics of real data and thus has higher applicability, and helps to identify the progression of myopia earlier. The overall error 0.103 (D) is much smaller than the criterion for clinically acceptable prediction, say 0.75 (D).
这是一项回顾性分析。基于儿童可变长度的历史视力记录，对其球镜等效值进行定量预测。2019 年 10 月至 2022 年 3 月，我们检查了来自中国成都 37586 名 6-20 岁儿童和青少年的 75172 只未矫正视力、球镜、散光、轴位、角膜曲率和眼轴。80%的样本由训练集组成，10%来自验证集，其余 10%来自测试集。使用时间感知长短期记忆模型定量预测儿童和青少年未来两年半的球镜等效值。在测试集上，球镜等效值的平均绝对预测误差为 0.103 ± 0.140（D），范围为 0.040 ± 0.050（D）至 0.187 ± 0.168（D），具体取决于历史记录的长度和预测持续时间的不同。时间感知长短期记忆模型用于捕获不规则采样时间序列中的时间特征，这更符合真实数据的特点，因此具有更高的适用性，并有助于更早识别近视的进展。整体误差 0.103（D）远小于临床可接受预测的标准，例如 0.75（D）。
