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谁来解救中国式养老困局?补贴政策下的家政服务业正规化的演化博弈分析与仿真研究。

Who would rescue the dilemma of Chinese elderly care? An evolutionary game analysis and simulation research on the formalization of the domestic service industry with subsidy policy.

机构信息

School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

Department of Social and Cultural Studies, Party School of C.P.C. Jiangsu Committee, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2023 Mar 21;11:1111208. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1111208. eCollection 2023.

DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1111208
PMID:37026124
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10071035/
Abstract

Since China entered the aging society, the surging demand for elderly care and the industrial upgrading of "silver economy" has forced the domestic service industry to face endogenous challenges. Among them, the formalization of the domestic service industry can effectively reduce the transaction costs and risks of actors, innovate the endogenous vitality of the industry, and promote the improvement of elderly care quality through a triangular employment relationship. By constructing a tripartite asymmetric evolutionary game model of clients, domestic enterprises and governmental departments, this study uses the stability theorem of differential equations to explore the influencing factors and action paths of the system's evolutionary stable strategies (ESS), and uses the research data collected from China to assign values to models for simulation analysis. This study finds that the ratio of the initial ideal strategy, the difference between profits and costs, subsidies to clients, and subsidies or punishments for breach of contract to domestic enterprises are the key factors affecting the formalization of the domestic service industry. Subsidy policy programs can be divided into long-term and periodic programs, and there are differences in the influence paths and effects of the key factors in different situations. Increasing domestic enterprises' market share with employee management systems, formulating subsidy programs for clients, and setting up evaluation and supervision mechanisms are efficient ways through which to promote the formalization of the domestic service industry in China. Subsidy policy of governmental departments should focus on improving the professional skills and quality of elderly care domestic workers, and also encourage domestic enterprises with employee management systems at the same time, to expand the scope of service beneficiaries by running nutrition restaurants in communities, cooperating with elderly care institutions, etc.

摘要

自中国进入老龄化社会以来,养老服务需求的猛增和“银发经济”的产业升级,迫使国内服务业直面内生性挑战。其中,家政服务业的规范化可以有效降低各方主体的交易成本和风险,通过三角雇佣关系创新行业内生动力,从而促进养老服务质量的提升。本研究通过构建客户、家政企业和政府三方非对称演化博弈模型,利用微分方程稳定性定理探讨系统演化稳定策略(ESS)的影响因素和作用路径,并利用在中国收集的研究数据对模型赋值进行模拟分析。研究发现,初始理想策略比例、盈利与成本差值、客户补贴、对违约的企业补贴或处罚是影响家政服务业规范化的关键因素。补贴政策方案可分为长期和周期性方案,在不同情况下,关键因素的影响路径和效果存在差异。通过员工管理制度提高家政企业的市场份额、制定客户补贴方案、建立评估和监督机制,是促进中国家政服务业规范化的有效途径。政府部门的补贴政策应注重提高养老家政服务人员的专业技能和素质,同时鼓励采用员工管理制度的家政企业,通过在社区开办营养餐厅、与养老机构合作等方式扩大服务受益人群。

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