College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, National Academy of Agriculture Green Development, Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions, Ministry of Education, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
Maize Research Institute, Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Jinan, China.
Nat Food. 2022 Dec;3(12):1031-1039. doi: 10.1038/s43016-022-00646-0. Epub 2022 Dec 1.
China feeds 19.1% of the world's population with 8.6% of the arable land. Here we propose an integrated approach combining crop redistribution and improved management to meet China's food demand in 2030. We simulated the food demand, estimated the national crop production through the productivity of the top 10% of producers in each county, and optimized the spatial distribution of 11 groups of crop types among counties using the data of the top producers. Integrating crop redistribution and improved management increased crop production and can meet the food demand in 2030, while the agricultural inputs (N and P fertilizers and irrigation water) and environmental impacts (reactive N loss and greenhouse gas emissions) were reduced. Although there are significant socio-economic and cultural barriers to implementing such redistribution, these results suggest that integrated measures can achieve food security and decrease negative environmental impacts. County-specific policies and advisory support will be needed to achieve the promises of combining optimization strategies.
中国以 8.6%的耕地养活了世界 19.1%的人口。在这里，我们提出了一种综合方法，将作物重新分配和改进管理相结合，以满足中国 2030 年的粮食需求。我们模拟了粮食需求，通过每个县生产力最高的前 10%生产者的生产力来估算全国的作物产量，并利用顶级生产者的数据来优化 11 组作物类型在各县之间的空间分布。整合作物重新分配和改进管理可以增加作物产量，满足 2030 年的粮食需求，同时减少农业投入（N 和 P 肥料以及灌溉用水）和环境影响（活性 N 损失和温室气体排放）。尽管在实施这种重新分配方面存在重大的社会经济和文化障碍，但这些结果表明，综合措施可以实现粮食安全和减少负面环境影响。需要针对具体县的政策和咨询支持来实现结合优化策略的承诺。
