Navarro Valencia Vicente Alonso, Díaz Yamilka, Pascale Jose Miguel, Boni Maciej F, Sanchez-Galan Javier E
Facultad de Ciencias y Tecnología, Universidad Tecnológica de Panamá, Campus Victor Levi Sasso, Panama, Panama.
Department of Research in Virology and Biotechnology, Gorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama, Panama.
Heliyon. 2023 Apr 13;9(4):e15424. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15424. eCollection 2023 Apr.
Nowadays, the ability to make data-driven decisions in public health is of utmost importance. To achieve this, it is necessary for modelers to comprehend the impact of models on the future state of healthcare systems. Compartmental models are a valuable tool for making informed epidemiological decisions, and the proper parameterization of these models is crucial for analyzing epidemiological events. This work evaluated the use of compartmental models in conjunction with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to determine optimal solutions and understand the dynamics of Dengue epidemics. The focus was on calculating and evaluating the rate of case reproduction, , for the Republic of Panama. Three compartmental models were compared: Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR), Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR), and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Human-Susceptible-Infected Vector (SIR Human-SI Vector, SIR-SI). The models were informed by demographic data and Dengue incidence in the Republic of Panama between 1999 and 2022, and the susceptible population was analyzed. The SIR, SEIR, and SIR-SI models successfully provided estimates ranging from 1.09 to 1.74. This study provides, to the best of our understanding, the first calculation of for Dengue outbreaks in the Republic of Panama.
如今，在公共卫生领域做出数据驱动决策的能力至关重要。要做到这一点，建模人员有必要理解模型对医疗系统未来状态的影响。 compartmental模型是做出明智流行病学决策的宝贵工具，对这些模型进行适当的参数化对于分析流行病学事件至关重要。这项工作评估了compartmental模型与粒子群优化（PSO）结合使用的情况，以确定最优解并了解登革热疫情的动态。重点是计算和评估巴拿马共和国的病例繁殖率 。比较了三种compartmental模型：易感-感染-康复（SIR）、易感-暴露-感染-康复（SEIR）和易感-感染-康复人类-易感-感染媒介（SIR人类-SI媒介，SIR-SI）。这些模型以1999年至2022年巴拿马共和国的人口数据和登革热发病率为依据，并对易感人群进行了分析。SIR、SEIR和SIR-SI模型成功提供了范围从1.09到1.74的 估计值。据我们所知，这项研究首次对巴拿马共和国登革热疫情的 进行了计算。
