Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy, Wageningen University and Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Department of International Policy, Wageningen University and Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Nat Food. 2023 Jun;4(6):496-507. doi: 10.1038/s43016-023-00769-y. Epub 2023 Jun 5.
Dietary shifts are key for enhancing the sustainability of current food systems but need to account for potential economic, social and environmental indirect effects as well. By tracing physical quantities of biomass along supply chains in a global economic model, we investigate the benefits of adopting the EAT-Lancet diet and other social, economic and environmental spillovers in the wider economy. We find that decreased global food demand reduces global biomass production, food prices, trade, land use and food loss and waste but also reduces food affordability for low-income agricultural households. In sub-Saharan Africa, increased food demand and higher prices decrease food affordability also for non-agricultural households. Economic spillovers into non-food sectors limit agricultural land and greenhouse gas reductions as cheaper biomass is demanded more for non-food use. From an environmental perspective, economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions increase as lower global food demand at lower prices frees income subsequently spent on non-food items.
饮食结构的转变对于提高当前食品系统的可持续性至关重要，但也需要考虑到潜在的经济、社会和环境间接影响。通过在全球经济模型中追踪供应链中的生物质物理数量，我们研究了采用 EAT-Lancet 饮食和其他社会、经济和环境溢出效应对更广泛经济的好处。我们发现，全球粮食需求的减少降低了全球生物质生产、粮食价格、贸易、土地利用和粮食损失和浪费，但也降低了低收入农业家庭的粮食可负担性。在撒哈拉以南非洲，粮食需求的增加和价格的上涨也降低了非农业家庭的粮食可负担性。对非食品部门的经济溢出效应限制了农业用地和温室气体的减少，因为对非食品用途的生物质需求增加，价格更低。从环境角度来看，由于较低的全球粮食需求和较低的价格释放了收入，这些收入随后用于购买非食品，因此，全球范围内的温室气体排放增加。
