Deng Zhongci, Hu Yuanchao, Wang Xiaoxi, Li Cai, Wang Jingyu, He Pan, Wang Zhen, Bryan Brett A
College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China.
School of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Nat Commun. 2025 Apr 27;16(1):3948. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59275-3.
Switching to alternative global diets offers established benefits, but the challenges and opportunities for individual countries during and after the transition remain unassessed. In this study, we project changes in water use, dietary quality, and food affordability under four dietary scenarios (including Mediterranean diet, the EAT-Lancet diet, the Healthy US-Style diet, and Vegetarian diet), assessing the potential implications at the country level from 2020 to 2070. Here, we show that by 2070, transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets can improve dietary quality by 30.29 - 45.43%, with all countries reducing water use (1.21 - 14.73%) and increasing food affordability (9.29 - 63.23%). However, in the initial phases, increased food demand escalated water use and worsened food affordability, especially in emerging and developing economies, with the maximum average deterioration being 2.62% and 13.06%, respectively. These highlight the need for long-term planning and financial support to ensure successful global transitions.
转向其他全球饮食模式有既定的益处，但各国在转型期间及之后所面临的挑战和机遇仍未得到评估。在本研究中，我们预测了四种饮食情景（包括地中海饮食、EAT-柳叶刀饮食、美国健康饮食模式和素食饮食）下的用水变化、饮食质量和食品可负担性，并评估了2020年至2070年在国家层面的潜在影响。在此，我们表明，到2070年，转向健康且可持续的饮食模式可使饮食质量提高30.29%至45.43%，所有国家的用水量都会减少（1.21%至14.73%），食品可负担性会提高（9.29%至63.23%）。然而，在初始阶段，食品需求的增加导致用水量上升，食品可负担性恶化，尤其是在新兴经济体和发展中经济体，平均最大恶化幅度分别为2.62%和13.06%。这些突出了长期规划和财政支持对于确保全球成功转型的必要性。
