School of Management, Research Institute of Digital Governance and Management Decision Innovation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China.
Front Public Health. 2023 Jun 16;11:1124541. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1124541. eCollection 2023.
In order to study the impact of social factors on the evolution of the epidemic, this paper takes the COVID-19 in Hubei Province of China as an example to study the impact of social factors such as the permanent population, universities, hospitals, the distance between Wuhan seafood market and 17 cities in Hubei Province, and the distribution of medical supplies on the COVID-19. This is of great significance for helping to develop effective prevention and control measures and response strategies, ensuring public health and social stability.
Time series regression analysis is used to study the impact of various factors on the epidemic situation, multidimensional scale analysis is used to assess the differences among provinces, and Almon polynomial is used to study the lag effect of the impact.
We found that these cities can be divided into three groups based on the number of confirmed cases and the time course data of the cases. The results verify that these factors have a great impact on the evolution of the COVID-19.
With the increase in the number of universities, the number of confirmed cases and new cases has significantly increased. With the increase in population density, the number of new cases has significantly increased. In addition, the farther away from the Wuhan seafood market, the fewer confirmed cases. It is worth noting that the insufficient increase in medical supplies in some cities still leads to a significant increase in new cases. This impact is regional, and their lag periods are also different. Through the comparison with Guangdong Province, it is concluded that social factors will affect COVID-19. Overall, promoting the construction of medical schools and ensuring the reasonable distribution of medical supplies is crucial as it can effectively assist decision-making.
为了研究社会因素对疫情演变的影响，本文以中国湖北省的 COVID-19 为例，研究了常住人口、高校、医院、武汉海鲜市场与湖北省 17 个城市的距离以及医疗物资分布等社会因素对 COVID-19 的影响。这对于帮助制定有效的预防和控制措施以及应对策略，保障公众健康和社会稳定具有重要意义。
本文采用时间序列回归分析研究各种因素对疫情的影响，采用多维标度分析评估各省份之间的差异，采用阿尔蒙多项式研究影响的滞后效应。
根据确诊病例数和病例时间进程数据，我们发现这些城市可以分为三组。结果验证了这些因素对 COVID-19 的演变有很大的影响。
随着高校数量的增加，确诊病例和新增病例显著增加。随着人口密度的增加，新增病例显著增加。此外，离武汉海鲜市场越远，确诊病例越少。值得注意的是，一些城市的医疗物资供应不足仍然导致新增病例显著增加。这种影响是区域性的，它们的滞后期也不同。通过与广东省的比较，得出社会因素会影响 COVID-19 的结论。总体而言，促进医学院校的建设和确保医疗物资的合理分配至关重要，因为这可以有效地协助决策。
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