Department of Respiratory Medicine, Southwest Hospital of Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China.
Department of Cardiovascular Medicine Department, Southwest Hospital of Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China.
Front Public Health. 2023 Jul 13;11:1216924. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1216924. eCollection 2023.
Silicosis, a severe lung disease caused by inhaling silica dust, predominantly affects workers in industries such as mining and construction, leading to a significant global public health challenge. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current disease burden of silicosis and to predict the development trend of silicosis in the future the world by extracting data from the GBD database.
We extracted and analyzed silicosis prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 program for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. The association between the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and the burden of age-standardized rates (ASRs) of DALYs has been examined at the regional level. Jointpoint regression analysis has been also performed to evaluate global burden trends of silicosis from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis has also been projected to predict future the burden of silicosis from 2019 to 2044.
In 2019, global ASRs for silicosis prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs were 5.383, 1.650, 0.161, and 7.872%, respectively which are lower than that in 1990. The populations of 45-59 age group were more susceptible to silicosis, while those aged 80 or above suffered from higher mortality and DALY risks. In 2019, the most impacted nations by the burden of silicosis included China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Chile. From 1990 to 2019, most regions observed a declining burden of silicosis. An "M" shaped association between SDI and ASRs of DALYs for silicosis was observed from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort analysis forecasted a decreasing trend of the burden of silicosis from 2019 to 2044.
Despite the overall decline in the global silicosis burden from 1990 to 2019, some regions witnessed a notable burden of this disease, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Our results may provide a reference for the subsequent development of appropriate management strategies.
矽肺是一种由吸入二氧化硅粉尘引起的严重肺部疾病，主要影响采矿和建筑等行业的工人，给全球公共卫生带来重大挑战。本研究旨在通过从全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库中提取数据，分析矽肺的疾病负担现状，并预测未来全球矽肺的发病趋势。
我们从全球疾病负担 2019 年研究中提取并分析了 1990 年至 2019 年 204 个国家和地区的矽肺流行率、发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）数据。在区域水平上研究了社会人口指数（SDI）与年龄标准化率（ASR）的 DALYs 负担之间的关联。还进行了联合回归分析，以评估 1990 年至 2019 年全球矽肺负担的变化趋势。此外，Nordpred 年龄-时期-队列分析也被用于预测 2019 年至 2044 年矽肺负担的未来情况。
2019 年，全球矽肺流行率、发病率、死亡率和 DALYs 的 ASR 分别为 5.383%、1.650%、0.161%和 7.872%，均低于 1990 年的水平。45-59 岁年龄组人群更容易罹患矽肺，而 80 岁及以上人群的死亡率和 DALY 风险更高。2019 年，受矽肺负担影响最严重的国家包括中国、朝鲜民主主义人民共和国和智利。1990 年至 2019 年，大多数地区的矽肺负担呈下降趋势。1990 年至 2019 年，SDI 与矽肺 DALYs 的 ASR 之间存在“M”型关联。年龄-时期-队列分析预测 2019 年至 2044 年矽肺负担呈下降趋势。
尽管全球矽肺负担从 1990 年到 2019 年总体呈下降趋势，但一些地区仍面临着显著的疾病负担，这强调了有针对性干预的重要性。我们的研究结果可为后续制定适当的管理策略提供参考。
