Suppr超能文献

考虑社会脆弱性的基于机器学习的区域多灾种风险评估

Machine learning-enabled regional multi-hazards risk assessment considering social vulnerability.

作者信息

Zhang Tianjie, Wang Donglei, Lu Yang

机构信息

Environmental Research Building, Department of Computer Science, Boise State University, Boise, ID, 83725, USA.

Environmental Research Building, Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, Boise, ID, 83725, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Aug 17;13(1):13405. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-40159-9.

Abstract

The regional multi-hazards risk assessment poses difficulties due to data access challenges, and the potential interactions between multi-hazards and social vulnerability. For better natural hazards risk perception and preparedness, it is important to study the nature-hazards risk distribution in different areas, specifically a major priority in the areas of high hazards level and social vulnerability. We propose a multi-hazards risk assessment method which considers social vulnerability into the analyzing and utilize machine learning-enabled models to solve this issue. The proposed methodology integrates three aspects as follows: (1) characterization and mapping of multi-hazards (Flooding, Wildfires, and Seismic) using five machine learning methods including Naïve Bayes (NB), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and K-Means (KM); (2) evaluation of social vulnerability with a composite index tailored for the case-study area and using machine learning models for classification; (3) risk-based quantification of spatial interaction mechanisms between multi-hazards and social vulnerability. The results indicate that RF model performs best in both hazard-related and social vulnerability datasets. The most cities at multi-hazards risk account for 34.12% of total studied cities (covering 20.80% land). Additionally, high multi-hazards level and socially vulnerable cities account for 15.88% (covering 4.92% land). This study generates a multi-hazards risk map which show a wide variety of spatial patterns and a corresponding understanding of where regional high hazards potential and vulnerable areas are. It emphasizes an urgent need to implement information-based prioritization when natural hazards coming, and effective policy measures for reducing natural-hazards risks in future.

摘要

由于数据获取方面的挑战以及多种灾害与社会脆弱性之间的潜在相互作用,区域多灾害风险评估面临困难。为了更好地进行自然灾害风险认知和准备工作,研究不同地区的自然灾害风险分布非常重要,特别是在高灾害水平和社会脆弱性地区这一主要优先事项。我们提出了一种多灾害风险评估方法,该方法在分析中考虑了社会脆弱性,并利用机器学习模型来解决这一问题。所提出的方法整合了以下三个方面:(1)使用朴素贝叶斯(NB)、K近邻(KNN)、逻辑回归(LR)、随机森林(RF)和K均值(KM)这五种机器学习方法对多种灾害(洪水、野火和地震)进行特征描述和制图;(2)使用为案例研究区域量身定制的综合指数评估社会脆弱性,并使用机器学习模型进行分类;(3)基于风险对多种灾害与社会脆弱性之间的空间相互作用机制进行量化。结果表明,RF模型在与灾害相关的数据集和社会脆弱性数据集中表现最佳。处于多灾害风险中的城市占研究城市总数的34.12%(覆盖20.80%的土地)。此外,高多灾害水平和社会脆弱的城市占15.88%(覆盖4.92%的土地)。本研究生成了一张多灾害风险地图,该地图显示了各种各样的空间模式,并对区域高灾害潜力和脆弱地区的位置有了相应的了解。它强调了在自然灾害来袭时实施基于信息的优先级排序的迫切需要,以及未来减少自然灾害风险的有效政策措施。

文献检索

告别复杂PubMed语法,用中文像聊天一样搜索,搜遍4000万医学文献。AI智能推荐,让科研检索更轻松。

立即免费搜索

文件翻译

保留排版,准确专业,支持PDF/Word/PPT等文件格式,支持 12+语言互译。

免费翻译文档

深度研究

AI帮你快速写综述,25分钟生成高质量综述,智能提取关键信息,辅助科研写作。

立即免费体验