Matsumoto-Takahashi Emilie Louise Akiko, Iwagami Moritoshi, Oyoshi Kei, Sasaki Yoshinobu, Hongvanthong Bouasy, Kano Shigeyuki
Department of Tropical Medicine and Malaria, Research Institute, National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM), 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-Ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan.
Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan.
Trop Med Health. 2023 Nov 2;51(1):60. doi: 10.1186/s41182-023-00554-4.
The present study aimed to analyze the impact of deforestation on the malaria distribution in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), with consideration of climate change.
Malaria distribution data from 2002 to 2015 were obtained from the Ministry of Health of Lao PDR and each indicator was calculated. Earth observation satellite data (forested area, land surface temperature, and precipitation) were obtained from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Structured equation modeling (SEM) was conducted to clarify the relationship between the malaria incidence and Earth observation satellite data.
As a result, SEM identified two factors that were independently associated with the malaria incidence: area and proportion of forest. Specifically, malaria was found to be more prevalent in the southern region, with the malaria incidence increasing as the percentage of forested land increased (both p < 0.01). With global warming steadily progressing, forested areas are expected to play an important role in the incidence of malaria in Lao PDR. This is believed because malaria in Lao PDR is mainly forest malaria transmitted by Anopheles dirus.
To accelerate the elimination of malaria in Lao PDR, it is important to identify, prevent, and intervene in places with increased forest coverage (e.g., plantations) and in low-temperature areas adjacent to malaria-endemic areas, where the vegetation is similar to that in malaria-endemic areas.
本研究旨在分析森林砍伐对老挝人民民主共和国（老挝）疟疾分布的影响，并考虑气候变化因素。
从老挝卫生部获取2002年至2015年的疟疾分布数据，并计算各项指标。地球观测卫星数据（森林面积、地表温度和降水量）来自日本宇宙航空研究开发机构（JAXA）。采用结构方程模型（SEM）来阐明疟疾发病率与地球观测卫星数据之间的关系。
结果显示，SEM确定了与疟疾发病率独立相关的两个因素：森林面积和森林比例。具体而言，发现疟疾在南部地区更为普遍，随着林地百分比的增加，疟疾发病率也随之上升（两者p均<0.01）。随着全球变暖稳步推进，森林地区预计将在老挝疟疾发病率中发挥重要作用。这是因为老挝的疟疾主要是由大劣按蚊传播的森林疟疾。
为加速老挝疟疾的消除，重要的是识别、预防和干预森林覆盖率增加的地区（如种植园）以及疟疾流行地区附近植被与疟疾流行地区相似的低温地区。
