Mobeen Muhammad, Kabir Khondokar H, Schneider Uwe A, Ahmed Tauqeer, Scheffran Jürgen
Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Germany.
School of Integrated Climate System Sciences (SICSS), University of Hamburg, Germany.
Heliyon. 2023 Oct 13;9(11):e20818. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20818. eCollection 2023 Nov.
This study aims to assess the role of sustainable livelihood capital, the mediation of investments and farming purposes, and the moderation of climatic and non-climatic factors in the adaptation process, particularly in the aspects of Crop, Farm, Irrigation, and Economic Management. Moreover, guided by the VIABLE (Values and Investments for Agent-Based Interaction and Learning in Environmental Systems) framework, we analyze stakeholders' actions, priorities, and goals in the climate change adaptation process. A structured questionnaire was designed based on a five-point Likert scale covering the concepts of livelihood capital, climate change adaptation, investment priorities, farming constraints, and farmers' decision-making factors. Field data were collected from 800 farmers during December 2021 to February 2022 in the irrigated agricultural regions in the Indus Plain of the Punjab and Sindh provinces, Pakistan. We employed the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling approach to the VIABLE framework (VIABLE-SEM) to analyze the collected data. The results confirm livelihood capital as the most significant determinant (beta = 0.57, effect size = 0.503) for farmers' adaptation strategies in the Indus plain. Other variables, such as the principal purpose of farming, available investment options, natural and human constraints, appear less important. We identified 13 significant viability pathways that show investment priorities, farming purposes, and constraints faced by the farmers in climate change adaptation. The study also found that non-climatic factors negatively influence (beta = -0.156) the relationship between capital and adaptation, while climatic factors positively influence (beta = 0.050) this relationship. Interestingly, the presence of these influencing factors increases the adaptive capacity of farmers. These findings have important implications for policymakers and researchers in designing and implementing effective climate change adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector of Pakistan.
本研究旨在评估可持续生计资本的作用、投资与农业目的的中介作用，以及气候和非气候因素在适应过程中的调节作用，特别是在作物、农场、灌溉和经济管理方面。此外，在VIABLE（环境系统中基于主体的互动与学习的价值观和投资）框架的指导下，我们分析了利益相关者在气候变化适应过程中的行动、优先事项和目标。基于五点李克特量表设计了一份结构化问卷，涵盖生计资本、气候变化适应、投资优先事项、农业制约因素和农民决策因素等概念。2021年12月至2022年2月期间，在巴基斯坦旁遮普省和信德省印度河平原的灌溉农业区，从800名农民那里收集了实地数据。我们采用偏最小二乘结构方程建模方法对VIABLE框架（VIABLE-SEM）进行分析，以分析所收集的数据。结果证实，生计资本是印度河平原农民适应策略中最重要的决定因素（β = 0.57，效应量 = 0.503）。其他变量，如农业的主要目的、可用的投资选择、自然和人为制约因素，似乎不太重要。我们确定了13条重要的可行性路径，这些路径显示了农民在气候变化适应中的投资优先事项、农业目的和面临的制约因素。研究还发现，非气候因素对资本与适应之间的关系有负面影响（β = -0.156），而气候因素对这种关系有正面影响（β = 0.050）。有趣的是，这些影响因素的存在提高了农民的适应能力。这些发现对巴基斯坦农业部门的政策制定者和研究人员在设计和实施有效的气候变化适应策略方面具有重要意义。
