Bragard Claude, Baptista Paola, Chatzivassiliou Elisavet, Di Serio Francesco, Gonthier Paolo, Jaques Miret Josep Anton, Justesen Annemarie Fejer, MacLeod Alan, Magnusson Christer Sven, Milonas Panagiotis, Navas-Cortes Juan A, Parnell Stephen, Potting Roel, Reignault Philippe Lucien, Stefani Emilio, Thulke Hans-Hermann, van der Werf Wopke, Yuen Jonathan, Zappalà Lucia, Bezerra Lima Élison Fabrício, Makowski David, Crotta Matteo, Gobbi Alex, Golic Dejana, Maiorano Andrea, Mosbach-Schulz Olaf, Rossi Eugenio, Terzidou Anastasia, Vicent Civera Antonio
EFSA J. 2024 Apr 29;22(4):e8741. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2024.8741. eCollection 2024 Apr.
Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of (Mayet) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), a polyphagous thrips, regarded as a tropical/subtropical pest occurring in several countries of Africa, South America, Asia and in the EU in Cyprus. The current risk assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, the climatic conditions allowing establishment, the expected spread capacity and the impact considering a time horizon of 10 years (2023-2032). The Panel identified the import of cut roses, persimmons, table grapes, as well as plants for planting of the genera and from third countries and those of (avocado) from Israel as the most relevant entry pathways to consider. Over the next 10 years, an annual median estimate of 95 (90% Certainty Range, CR, ranging from 13 to 1832) potential founder populations per year are expected to successfully transfer to a suitable host in the EU NUTS2 regions where the climatic conditions are predicted as suitable for establishment; this value drops to a median of 4.6 founder populations per year (90% CR: 1 every 1.9 years - 85.6 per year) after considering the actual probability of establishment of a potential founder population. The estimated number of founder population per year is mostly driven by the import of cut roses and plants for planting. If such founder populations were to establish, is estimated to spread at a median rate of 0.05 km/year (90% CR 0.02-2.30 km/year) after a median lag phase of 1.1 years (90% CR 0.3-3.3 years). The overall impact on yield (expressed as % of the total agricultural production) directly attributable to when considering: (i) the main hosts in the EU, (ii) the areas of the EU where establishment is possible, (iii) the current agricultural practices and (iv) the evidence of impact from the countries where the pest is established for a long time, was estimated at 0.065% as the median value of the uncertainty distribution (90% CR 0.001%-0.571%). Options for risk reduction are discussed, but the effectiveness was not quantified.
应欧盟委员会的要求，欧洲食品安全局植物健康小组对（Mayet）（缨翅目：蓟马科）进行了欧盟层面的定量风险评估，这是一种多食性蓟马，被视为热带/亚热带害虫，在非洲、南美洲、亚洲的多个国家以及欧盟的塞浦路斯均有发生。当前的风险评估聚焦于可能的传入途径、允许定殖的气候条件、预期的扩散能力以及考虑10年时间跨度（2023 - 2032年）的影响。该小组确定从第三国进口切花玫瑰、柿子、鲜食葡萄以及种植的 属和 属植物，以及从以色列进口的 （鳄梨）属植物为最需考虑的相关传入途径。在未来10年中，预计每年中位数估计有95个（90%置信区间，CR，范围为13至1832个）潜在定殖种群每年成功转移至欧盟NUTS2区域内气候条件预计适宜定殖的合适寄主上；在考虑潜在定殖种群实际定殖概率后，该数值降至每年4.6个定殖种群的中位数（90% CR：每1.9年1个 - 每年85.6个）。每年估计的定殖种群数量主要受切花玫瑰和种植植物进口的驱动。如果这些定殖种群得以建立，预计在中位数滞后期1.1年（90% CR 0.3 - 3.3年）后， 以每年0.05千米的中位数扩散速率（90% CR 0.02 - 2.30千米/年）扩散。在考虑：（i）欧盟主要的 寄主，（ii）欧盟内可能定殖的区域，（iii）当前的农业实践以及（iv）该害虫长期定殖国家的影响证据时，对产量的总体影响（以占农业总产量的百分比表示）归因于 的部分，估计不确定性分布的中位数为0.065%（90% CR 0.001% - 0.571%）。文中讨论了降低风险的选项，但未对其有效性进行量化。
