Bragard Claude, Baptista Paola, Chatzivassiliou Elisavet, Di Serio Francesco, Gonthier Paolo, Jaques Miret Josep Anton, Justesen Annemarie Fejer, MacLeod Alan, Magnusson Christer Sven, Navas-Cortes Juan A, Parnell Stephen, Potting Roel, Reignault Philippe Lucien, Stefani Emilio, Vicent Civera Antonio, van der Werf Wopke, Yuen Jonathan, Zappalà Lucia, Thulke Hans-Hermann, Loomans Antoon, Christoph Eugen H, Crotta Matteo, Gobbi Alex, Golic Dejana, Maiorano Andrea, Terzidou Anastasia, Milonas Panagiotis
EFSA J. 2024 Jul 5;22(7):e8832. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2024.8832. eCollection 2024 Jul.
Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), a polyphagous pest occurring in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. The current risk assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, the climatic conditions allowing establishment, the expected spread capacity and the impact considering a time horizon of 10 years (2023-2032). The Panel identified the import of apples, cut flowers and table grapes as the most relevant entry pathways. Over the next 10 years, an annual median estimate of approximately 49.5 (90% certainty range, CR, ranging from 4.0 to 881.2) potential founder populations are expected. When the probability of establishment is considered and climatic indicators are used to define the areas in the EU where establishment is possible, the model estimated a median of 1 founder population every 1.3 years (90% CR: 1 every 30.8 years to 23.3 per year) in the scenario where the areas are defined by the union of all the climatic indicators and 1 founder population every 11.9 years (90% CR: 1 every 256.6 years to 2.5 per year) in the scenario where establishment is possible only in the areas defined by the climatic indicator of minimum soil temperature. The estimated number of founder populations per year is mostly driven by the probability of establishment in the rural areas, infestation rate in table grapes and the probability of transfer to a suitable host in the rural area. The risk of entry for cut flowers and apples is substantially lower than the risk from the table grapes. If such founder populations were to establish, is estimated to spread by natural dispersal and common agricultural practices at a rate of 15.5 m/year (90% CR 5.1-46.8 m/year) after a lag phase of 4.0 years (90% CR 1.3-8.7 years). The impact, expressed as percentage loss of the production directly attributable to in the areas where establishment is possible and assuming farmers do not apply specific control measures was estimated at 0.5% (90% CR 0.01%-2.8%) for cut flowers/foliage, 5.2% (90% CR 2.2%-11.7%) for apples and 2% (90% CR 1.3%-5.2%) for table grapes. Options for risk reduction are discussed, but their effectiveness is not quantified.
应欧盟委员会的要求，欧洲食品安全局植物健康小组对一种多食性害虫——[害虫名称未给出，原文此处有缺失]（鞘翅目：象甲科）进行了针对欧盟的定量风险评估，该害虫在澳大利亚、新西兰和南非均有发生。本次风险评估聚焦于潜在的传入途径、适合定殖的气候条件、预期的扩散能力以及考虑10年时间跨度（2023 - 2032年）的影响。小组确定苹果、切花和鲜食葡萄的进口为最相关的传入途径。在未来10年，预计每年潜在奠基种群的中位数估计约为49.5个（90%置信区间，CR，范围为4.0至881.2个）。当考虑定殖概率并使用气候指标来定义欧盟内可能定殖的区域时，在所有气候指标联合定义区域的情景下，模型估计每1.3年有1个奠基种群的中位数（90% CR：每30.8年1个至每年23.3个），而在仅在最低土壤温度气候指标定义区域可能定殖的情景下，估计每11.9年有1个奠基种群的中位数（90% CR：每256.6年1个至每年2.5个）。每年估计的奠基种群数量主要由农村地区的定殖概率、鲜食葡萄的侵染率以及农村地区转移到合适寄主的概率驱动。切花和苹果的传入风险显著低于鲜食葡萄的风险。如果这些奠基种群得以定殖，预计在4.0年（90% CR 1.3 - 8.7年）的滞后期后，[害虫名称未给出，原文此处有缺失]将通过自然扩散和常见农业活动以每年15.5米（90% CR 5.1 - 46.8米/年）的速度扩散。在可能定殖的区域，假设农民不采取特定控制措施，将直接归因于[害虫名称未给出，原文此处有缺失]的产量损失百分比表示的影响估计为：切花/叶为0.5%（90% CR 0.01% - 2.8%），苹果为5.2%（90% CR 2.2% - 11.7%），鲜食葡萄为2%（90% CR 1.3% - 5.2%）。文中讨论了降低风险的选项，但其有效性未进行量化。
