Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 29;14(1):20039. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-65942-0.
Fire agencies across the United States must make complex resource allocation decisions to manage wildfires using a national network of shared firefighting resources. Firefighters play a critical role in suppressing fires and protecting vulnerable communities. However, they are exposed to health and safety risks associated with fire, smoke inhalation, and infectious disease transmission. The COVID-19 pandemic further complicated these risks, prompting fire agencies to propose resource management adaptations to minimize COVID-19 exposure and transmission. It is unclear if and how the pandemic may have operationally influenced wildland firefighting personnel resource use given compounding wildfire and COVID-19 risks. Therefore, we developed generalized linear mixed models that were fit using multiple integrated datasets to detect changes in personnel resource use for years prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic, while controlling for historical fire and landscape conditions, societal risks, and management objectives. Analyses of observed and predicted firefighting resource use revealed reductions in the mean personnel resources used per wildfire per day during the pandemic for models developed across the western U.S. and for various western U.S. fire regions. Notably, the Northern California and the Great Basin Coordination Centers showed statistically significant reductions in ground personnel use during the COVID-19 pandemic. Learning from wildland fire management strategies and resource use trends that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, fire agencies can better anticipate resource constraints that may arise during the compounding threats of severe wildland fire activity and infectious disease outbreaks to proactively prepare and adapt suppression management strategies.
美国各地的消防机构必须做出复杂的资源分配决策,利用全国共享的消防资源网络来管理野火。消防员在扑灭火灾和保护脆弱社区方面发挥着关键作用。然而,他们面临着与火灾、烟雾吸入和传染病传播相关的健康和安全风险。COVID-19 大流行进一步加剧了这些风险,促使消防机构提出资源管理调整措施,以最大程度地降低 COVID-19 的暴露和传播风险。目前尚不清楚 COVID-19 是否以及如何影响野火消防人员的资源使用,因为野火和 COVID-19 的风险在不断增加。因此,我们开发了广义线性混合模型,这些模型使用多个综合数据集进行拟合,以检测 COVID-19 大流行之前和期间人员资源使用的变化,同时控制历史火灾和景观条件、社会风险和管理目标。对观测和预测的消防资源使用情况的分析表明,在 COVID-19 大流行期间,美国西部各地以及美国西部各个火灾地区的每日每起野火平均使用人员资源减少。值得注意的是,北加利福尼亚和大盆地协调中心在 COVID-19 大流行期间地面人员使用量明显减少。从 COVID-19 大流行期间发生的野火管理策略和资源使用趋势中吸取教训,消防机构可以更好地预测在严重野火活动和传染病爆发的复合威胁下可能出现的资源限制,从而提前做好准备并调整抑制管理策略。